Friday , January 28 2022
Home / Econbrowser - James Hamilton / October Inflation Recap

October Inflation Recap

Summary:
With PCE inflation figures in, we have the key price indices for October.  Core PCE inflation was at market expectations (Bloomberg). Nowcasts for November inflation is down markedly. Figure 1: Month-on-month annualized CPI inflation (blue), PCE price inflation (red). Light squares are Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of 11/24. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed, and NBER. Core inflation looks like it will be down as well. Figure 2: Month-on-month annualized Core CPI inflation (blue), Core PCE price inflation (red). Light squares are Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of 11/24. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed, and NBER. Note these are month-on-month inflation rates; year-on-year rates will continue to rise through November’s numbers even if these nowcasts prove correct.

Topics:
Menzie Chinn considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

John H. Cochrane writes Fed Nominees

John H. Cochrane writes Fiscal Inflation.

Menzie Chinn writes More on Market Indicators pre- & post-Manchin

John H. Cochrane writes The Ghost of Christmas Inflation

With PCE inflation figures in, we have the key price indices for October.  Core PCE inflation was at market expectations (Bloomberg). Nowcasts for November inflation is down markedly.

October Inflation Recap

Figure 1: Month-on-month annualized CPI inflation (blue), PCE price inflation (red). Light squares are Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of 11/24. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed, and NBER.

Core inflation looks like it will be down as well.

October Inflation Recap

Figure 2: Month-on-month annualized Core CPI inflation (blue), Core PCE price inflation (red). Light squares are Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of 11/24. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed, and NBER.

Note these are month-on-month inflation rates; year-on-year rates will continue to rise through November’s numbers even if these nowcasts prove correct.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *