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IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months

Summary:
IHME updated its forecasts yesterday. First the time series for total excess deaths: Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021. So, as of today, excess deaths are not particularly high — but looking forward one month, two months, the outlook is grim for populations in certain states. Map for July 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021. Map for August 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021. Map for September 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand  Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021. One can already see the trends in hospitalizations (the vaccinations have delinked cases from deaths, but the states hard hit have low vaccination rates…). From NYT: Hospitalizations per hundred thousand  Source: NYT, 23 July 2021. Economic indicators don’t show an impact

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IHME updated its forecasts yesterday. First the time series for total excess deaths:

IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months

Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021.

So, as of today, excess deaths are not particularly high — but looking forward one month, two months, the outlook is grim for populations in certain states.

Map for July 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand

IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months

Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021.

Map for August 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand

IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months

Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021.

Map for September 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand 

IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months

Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021.

One can already see the trends in hospitalizations (the vaccinations have delinked cases from deaths, but the states hard hit have low vaccination rates…). From NYT:

Hospitalizations per hundred thousand IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months

Source: NYT, 23 July 2021.

Economic indicators don’t show an impact yet, as discussed in this post. The Economist had an article yesterday musing on the economic impact of the Covid surge.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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