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Forecasts, on the Eve of the 2021Q2 Advance Release [Updated]

Summary:
Q2 GDP will be released tomorrow morning, and Jim will be providing his insights on the numbers. Today, the IMF released its July 2021 World Economic Outlook forecasts, which gives us and opportunity to recap where we stand. [Updated 7/29, 1pm Pacific] Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), Administration FY22 forecast (blue triangle), CBO June forecast (red line), FT-IGM (light green triangle),  IMF July WEO (green x), potential GDP as estimated by CBO in July 2021 (thick dark gray line). Dates indicated denote when the forecasts were “locked down”. Source: BEA, OMB FY’22 Budget, WSJ July survey, and FT-IGM survey (June), CBO (February, July), IMF (July), and author’s calculations. Updated Figure 1: GDP as reported on 7/29 in 2021Q2 advance release (black), Administration FY22 forecast

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Q2 GDP will be released tomorrow morning, and Jim will be providing his insights on the numbers. Today, the IMF released its July 2021 World Economic Outlook forecasts, which gives us and opportunity to recap where we stand. [Updated 7/29, 1pm Pacific]

Forecasts, on the Eve of the 2021Q2 Advance Release [Updated]

Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), Administration FY22 forecast (blue triangle), CBO June forecast (red line), FT-IGM (light green triangle),  IMF July WEO (green x), potential GDP as estimated by CBO in July 2021 (thick dark gray line). Dates indicated denote when the forecasts were “locked down”. Source: BEA, OMB FY’22 Budget, WSJ July survey, and FT-IGM survey (June), CBO (February, July), IMF (July), and author’s calculations.

Forecasts, on the Eve of the 2021Q2 Advance Release [Updated]

Updated Figure 1: GDP as reported on 7/29 in 2021Q2 advance release (black), Administration FY22 forecast (blue triangle), CBO June forecast (red line), FT-IGM (light green triangle),  IMF July WEO (green x), potential GDP as estimated by CBO in July 2021 (thick dark gray line). Dates indicated denote when the forecasts were “locked down”. Source: BEA 2021Q2 advance release, OMB FY’22 Budget, WSJ July survey, and FT-IGM survey (June), CBO (February, July), IMF (July), and author’s calculations.

Nowcasts of Q2 GDP are 6.4% SAAR (Atlanta Fed, 7/28), 3.16% (NY Fed, 7/23), 7.2% (IHS-MarkIt, 7/28).

[Update 7/29:] The actual Q2 advance figure was 6.5%. Figure 2 shows the actual advance growth rate, and the nowcasts as well as the July WSJ consensus as of early July.

Forecasts, on the Eve of the 2021Q2 Advance Release [Updated]

Figure 2: GDP growth rate as reported in 2021Q2 advance (black), GDPNow fm Atlanta Fed (red square), NY Fed nowcast (green), and IHS Markit (orange), and WSJ consensus forecast from July survey (blue), all q/q SAAR. Source: BEA 2020Q2 advance release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, IHS-Markit, and WSJ July survey.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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