Thursday , October 21 2021
Home / Econbrowser - James Hamilton / One Year Expectations on the Eve of the CPI Release

One Year Expectations on the Eve of the CPI Release

Summary:
NY Fed’s consumer survey runs hot at 5.3%, hotter than MIchigan’s 4.6%. Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 10/12 (gray circle), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed , Cleveland Fed, and Coibion and Gorodnichenko.  In general, both NY Fed and Michigan surveys are upwardly biased (see here).

Topics:
Menzie Chinn considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Menzie Chinn writes A Graphical Primer to Interpreting the Sources of Inflation in the Covid Era

Menzie Chinn writes Velocity Is Not Stable

Menzie Chinn writes If You Are Worrying About Inflation Eroding Wages…

Menzie Chinn writes CPI Inflation in September

NY Fed’s consumer survey runs hot at 5.3%, hotter than MIchigan’s 4.6%.

One Year Expectations on the Eve of the CPI Release

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 10/12 (gray circle), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, ReutersPhiladelphia Fed Survey of Professional ForecastersNY FedCleveland Fed , Cleveland Fed, and Coibion and Gorodnichenko

In general, both NY Fed and Michigan surveys are upwardly biased (see here).

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *