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Employment Surges to 5.5% below Feb 2020

Summary:
The economy added 916,000 jobs in March, above the Bloomberg consensus of 647,000. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/1 for March nonfarm payroll employment (light blue square), industrial production (red),  personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations. On the strength of the labor market, see Baum and Klein at EconoFact.

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The economy added 916,000 jobs in March, above the Bloomberg consensus of 647,000.

Employment Surges to 5.5% below Feb 2020

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/1 for March nonfarm payroll employment (light blue square), industrial production (red),  personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

On the strength of the labor market, see Baum and Klein at EconoFact.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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