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Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators

Summary:
Employment figures were released today, showing continued growth. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from May release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 6/1 for May nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (6/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations. Here’s a close-up of employment. Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment, May release (black), April release

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Employment figures were released today, showing continued growth. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:

Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from May release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 6/1 for May nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (6/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Here’s a close-up of employment.

Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment, May release (black), April release (brown), Bloomberg consensus for May (blue square), calculated by adding predicted May change to April preliminary. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations. 

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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