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Economic Report of the President, 2021

Summary:
Is out, here. The policy inclusive forecast from CEA, as compared to the official forecast in the FY2021 budget proposal, and the WSJ January survey: Figure 3: GDP as reported in 2020Q3 3rd release (black), Administration FY2021 forecast (and MSR) (red square), WSJ January survey mean (blue circle), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2020Q3 3rd release, OMB, January WSJ survey,  Economic Report of the President, 2021, and author’s calculations. These projections… assume passage of additional legislation to provide for reauthorization and expansion of the Paycheck Protection Program to support small business employment, an expanded employee retention tax credit, a reemployment bonus, and a temporary extension of targeted fiscal support to State and local

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Is out, here.

Economic Report of the President, 2021

The policy inclusive forecast from CEA, as compared to the official forecast in the FY2021 budget proposal, and the WSJ January survey:

Economic Report of the President, 2021

Figure 3: GDP as reported in 2020Q3 3rd release (black), Administration FY2021 forecast (and MSR) (red square), WSJ January survey mean (blue circle), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2020Q3 3rd release, OMB, January WSJ surveyEconomic Report of the President, 2021, and author’s calculations.

These projections…

assume passage of additional legislation to provide for reauthorization and expansion of the Paycheck Protection Program to support small business employment, an expanded employee retention tax credit, a reemployment bonus, and a temporary extension of targeted fiscal support to State and local governments, schools, and low- and middle-income households and households with unemployed workers.

In the near term, the economic targets reported here also assume enactment
of the President’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure proposal, as analyzed in the 2018 Economic Report of the President. They also assume that all provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are currently scheduled to sunset or expire are instead made permanent.

The economic targets also assume enactment of skills-based immigration reform, a continuation of the Administration’s comprehensive deregulatory agenda, improved bilateral trade agreements with major trading partners, and longer-run fiscal consolidation, as discussed in the 2020 Economic Report of the President. They further assume additional labor market policies to incentivize higher labor force participation, including expanding work requirements for nondisabled, working-age recipients in noncash welfare programs; increasing childcare assistance for low-income families; and enhancing assistance for reskilling programs

Here is the relevant Table:

Economic Report of the President, 2021

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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