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A Darkening Short Term Outlook

Summary:
Goldman Sachs prediction for December NFP is -50 thousand, and Deutsche Bank is -75 thousands. The current Bloomberg consensus of +71 thousand (down from +100 thousand on the 6th). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), Bloomberg consensus (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (red +), and Deutsche Bank (green triangle), calculated by adding net job gains onto November actual. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank all as of 1/7, and author’s calculations.

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Goldman Sachs prediction for December NFP is -50 thousand, and Deutsche Bank is -75 thousands. The current Bloomberg consensus of +71 thousand (down from +100 thousand on the 6th).

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), Bloomberg consensus (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (red +), and Deutsche Bank (green triangle), calculated by adding net job gains onto November actual. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank all as of 1/7, and author’s calculations.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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