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“this [Covid-19] pandemic ain’t 1918–never was, never will be”

Summary:
— Comment by rick stryker, August 19, 2020. Then — as now — there were many who doubted the seriousness of the crisis, and several of those provided comments on this blog. With now 11 additional months of data, we have as of July 10th a reported 605,400 Covid-19 related deaths in the United States, and excess deaths of 668,500, according to the CDC (see this post). The CDC states that recent weeks deaths and excess deaths data will be revised, most likely upward. My experience is that it’s the most recently reported six weeks of data that get revised a lot. In its 7/23 forecast, IHME estimates excess deaths as of today at  937,100, and projects excess deaths by November 1st at 1,036,900. Update, 7/25 12:40pm Pacific: Jeff Frankel has a longer discussion of how the current episode

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— Comment by rick stryker, August 19, 2020.

Then — as now — there were many who doubted the seriousness of the crisis, and several of those provided comments on this blog.

With now 11 additional months of data, we have as of July 10th a reported 605,400 Covid-19 related deaths in the United States, and excess deaths of 668,500, according to the CDC (see this post). The CDC states that recent weeks deaths and excess deaths data will be revised, most likely upward. My experience is that it’s the most recently reported six weeks of data that get revised a lot.

In its 7/23 forecast, IHME estimates excess deaths as of today at  937,100, and projects excess deaths by November 1st at 1,036,900.

Update, 7/25 12:40pm Pacific:

Jeff Frankel has a longer discussion of how the current episode (through 2020) was less severe than the 1918 flu; in fact that episode was twice as bad in age-adjusted per capita terms.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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