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Business Cycle Indicators as of 17 February

Summary:
The goods production side of the economy continues to recover while other indicators faltered. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 2/17 for February nonfarm payroll employment (light blue square), industrial production (red),  personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (2/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

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The goods production side of the economy continues to recover while other indicators faltered. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Business Cycle Indicators as of 17 February

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 2/17 for February nonfarm payroll employment (light blue square), industrial production (red),  personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (2/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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