by The goods production side of the economy continues to recover while other indicators faltered. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 2/17 for February nonfarm payroll employment (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (2/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
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Menzie Chinn considers the following as important: economic indicators, recession
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The goods production side of the economy continues to recover while other indicators faltered. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 2/17 for February nonfarm payroll employment (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (2/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.