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Shouldn’t we win the trade war before beginning a shooting war?

Summary:
From ASSA, take a look at the first paper’s abstract: United States-China Trade Relationships Hosted By: CHINESE ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION IN NORTH AMERICA Chair: Heiwai Tang, Johns Hopkins University and Hong Kong University Quantifying the United States-China Trade Conflicts Jiandong Ju, Tsinghua University Hong Ma, Tsinghua University Zi Wang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Xiaodong Zhu, Toronto University  View Abstract Structural Change and Global Trade Logan Lewis, Federal Reserve Board Ryan Monarch, Federal Reserve Board Michael Sposi, Southern Methodist University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Jing Zhang, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago  View Abstract  Download Preview (PDF, 432.77 KB) Input Trade and Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from

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From ASSA, take a look at the first paper’s abstract:

United States-China Trade Relationships

Hosted By: CHINESE ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION IN NORTH AMERICA
  • Chair: Heiwai TangJohns Hopkins University and Hong Kong University

Quantifying the United States-China Trade Conflicts

Jiandong JuTsinghua University
Hong MaTsinghua University
Zi Wang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Xiaodong Zhu, Toronto University

Structural Change and Global Trade

Logan LewisFederal Reserve Board
Ryan MonarchFederal Reserve Board
Michael SposiSouthern Methodist University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Jing ZhangFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Input Trade and Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from Chinese Firms

Kyle Handley, University of Michigan
Nuno Limao, University of Maryland
Rodney Ludema, Georgetown University
Zhi Yu, Renmin University of China

Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization

Andrew Greenland, Elon University
Mihai Ion, University of Arizona
John Lopresti, College of William and Mary
Peter K. Schott, NBER and Yale University

Discussant(s)
Fernando Parro, Pennsylvania State University
Steffan H. Qi, Hong Kong Baptist University
Deborah Swenson, University of California-Davis
Colin Hottman, Federal Reserve Board

From NBER today:

Who’s Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective

Mary AmitiStephen J. ReddingDavid E. Weinstein

NBER Working Paper No. 26610
Issued in January 2020

Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers. We show that the response of import values to the tariffs increases in absolute magnitude over time, consistent with the idea that it takes time for firms to reorganize supply chains. We find heterogeneity in the responses of some sectors, such as steel, where tariffs have caused foreign exporters to drop their prices substantially, enabling them to export relatively more than in sectors where tariff passthrough was complete.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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