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Even Before the Recession, Employment Was Slowing

Summary:
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data show the divergence from the establishment survey measurment of total employment in the months before the peak. Figure 1: Year-on-year growth rate in nonfarm payroll employment from establishment survey (red), from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (blue), both calculated as 12 month log differences. Source: BLS, author’s calculations. NBER identified peak is 2020M02.

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Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data show the divergence from the establishment survey measurment of total employment in the months before the peak.

Even Before the Recession, Employment Was Slowing

Figure 1: Year-on-year growth rate in nonfarm payroll employment from establishment survey (red), from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (blue), both calculated as 12 month log differences. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.

NBER identified peak is 2020M02.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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