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The Pandemic in Wisconsin: Projections

Summary:
As of today, the Covid Tracking Project reports 7 day rolling average of 4.29 deaths/day. IHME at UW projects a fatality rate of 14.83/day by Nov 1st, while Youyang Gu‘s model (forecasting performance discussed here) projects 12/day. Both of these exceed the 7-day rolling average of 11.21 recorded April 12th (according to IHME) To place matters in context, 12/day works out to 365/month, while 14.83 works out to 451/month. Governor Evers has just extended the statewide indoor-mask mandate, due in part to the surge in cases. As Reuters notes: Wisconsin has experienced one of the highest percentage increases of coronavirus cases nationwide over the past two weeks, and has the second-highest rate of positive coronavirus tests in the nation at 17%, according to a Reuters tally.

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As of today, the Covid Tracking Project reports 7 day rolling average of 4.29 deaths/day. IHME at UW projects a fatality rate of 14.83/day by Nov 1st, while Youyang Gu‘s model (forecasting performance discussed here) projects 12/day. Both of these exceed the 7-day rolling average of 11.21 recorded April 12th (according to IHME)

To place matters in context, 12/day works out to 365/month, while 14.83 works out to 451/month.

Governor Evers has just extended the statewide indoor-mask mandate, due in part to the surge in cases. As Reuters notes:

Wisconsin has experienced one of the highest percentage increases of coronavirus cases nationwide over the past two weeks, and has the second-highest rate of positive coronavirus tests in the nation at 17%, according to a Reuters tally.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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