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Nonfarm Payroll Employment vs. Trend, Pre-Covid-19

Summary:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), deterministic trend estimated 2013M01-2017M01 (brown), both on log scale. Source: BLS and author’s calculations. Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), stochastic trend estimated 2013M01-2017M01 (brown), both on log scale. Source: BLS and author’s calculations. The above graphs are useful if you thought everything was hunky-dory employment-wise, even before the pandemic hit.

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Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), deterministic trend estimated 2013M01-2017M01 (brown), both on log scale. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), stochastic trend estimated 2013M01-2017M01 (brown), both on log scale. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

The above graphs are useful if you thought everything was hunky-dory employment-wise, even before the pandemic hit.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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