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Is Employment Growth (a Lot) Lower Than We Think?

Summary:
[unable to retrieve full-text content]Yesterday’s employment release indicated a deceleration in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment growth. Data from other sources suggests that the deceleration over the last year is more marked than indicated by the establishment survey. First, consider the deceleration relative to 2017-18 (stochastic) trend, in Figure 1. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (bold blue), stochastic trend for […]

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Yesterday’s employment release indicated a deceleration in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment growth. Data from other sources suggests that the deceleration over the last year is more marked than indicated by the establishment survey. First, consider the deceleration relative to 2017-18 (stochastic) trend, in Figure 1. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (bold blue), stochastic trend for […]
Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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