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I Spent a Couple Trillion Dollars, and All I Got Was Trend Employment Growth!

Summary:
Reader JBH writes: “Employment has done marvelously well under this president.” I laughed and laughed and laughed when I read this. Why? Take a look: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), and stochastic trend (red). Stochastic trend estimated using 2010-2016 data, and regression of first log difference on a constant. Source: BLS March 2019 employment situation release, and author’s calculations. We are doing as well as we were from 2010-2016, even after massive tax cuts and the end of spending restraints amounting in the trillions. But kudos to JBH for livin’ in a fantasy world … it for sure is more pleasant than my world. Thanks, Drumpf!

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Reader JBH writes:

“Employment has done marvelously well under this president.”

I laughed and laughed and laughed when I read this. Why? Take a look:

I Spent a Couple Trillion Dollars, and All I Got Was Trend Employment Growth!

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), and stochastic trend (red). Stochastic trend estimated using 2010-2016 data, and regression of first log difference on a constant. Source: BLS March 2019 employment situation release, and author’s calculations.

We are doing as well as we were from 2010-2016, even after massive tax cuts and the end of spending restraints amounting in the trillions.

But kudos to JBH for livin’ in a fantasy world … it for sure is more pleasant than my world. Thanks, Drumpf!

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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