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Is World Trade Volume a Leading Indicator?

Summary:
The slowdown could be coming from tariffs, or from decelerating economic growth. You decide… Figure 1: World trade volume, 2010=100 (blue). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and NBER.

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The slowdown could be coming from tariffs, or from decelerating economic growth. You decide…

Is World Trade Volume a Leading Indicator?

Figure 1: World trade volume, 2010=100 (blue). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and NBER. 

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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