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Scary and Scarier: CFNAI

Summary:
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April (May comes on June 24th). First the scary: Then the scarier: The 3 month moving average for production and income component of the CFNAI is now at 2016 levels. Of course 2016 did not coincide with a recession. But the term spread was solidly upward sloping then, and most NBER BCDC key indicators were rising.

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April (May comes on June 24th).

First the scary:

Scary and Scarier: CFNAI

Then the scarier:

Scary and Scarier: CFNAI

The 3 month moving average for production and income component of the CFNAI is now at 2016 levels. Of course 2016 did not coincide with a recession. But the term spread was solidly upward sloping then, and most NBER BCDC key indicators were rising.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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