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If a Recession Occurs, Plenty of People Will Have Predicted It

Summary:
NABE survey, WSJ survey, Bloomberg survey, PredictIt Source: NABE, Economic Policy Survey,19 Aug 2019. Survey 14 July-1 August 2019. Source:WSJ, August 2019 survey of economists. Source: Bloomberg, 8 Aug 2019. Source: PredictIt, 16 Aug 2019. All of these polls were conducted before the stock market drop on 14 August; the PredictIt market price was obtained on 16 August, so incorporates the news regarding inversion of the 10yr-2yr.

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NABE survey, WSJ survey, Bloomberg survey, PredictIt

Source: NABE, Economic Policy Survey,19 Aug 2019. Survey 14 July-1 August 2019.

If a Recession Occurs, Plenty of People Will Have Predicted It

Source:WSJ, August 2019 survey of economists.

If a Recession Occurs, Plenty of People Will Have Predicted It

Source: Bloomberg, 8 Aug 2019.

If a Recession Occurs, Plenty of People Will Have Predicted It

Source: PredictIt, 16 Aug 2019.

All of these polls were conducted before the stock market drop on 14 August; the PredictIt market price was obtained on 16 August, so incorporates the news regarding inversion of the 10yr-2yr.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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