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Recession Indicators as of July 21

Summary:
Industrial production is down relative to previous month, and relative to recent peak. GDP, sales, personal income are all below recent peak as well. Nonfarm payroll employment continues to plug along — although at a decelerating pace (1.53% y/y). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink bold), all log normalized to 2019M01=0.  Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (6/26 release), and author’s calculations. Note that manufacturing has recovered somewhat since last posting. Figure 2: Manufacturing employment (blue), aggregate hours of production and nonsupervisory workers (red) and

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Industrial production is down relative to previous month, and relative to recent peak. GDP, sales, personal income are all below recent peak as well. Nonfarm payroll employment continues to plug along — although at a decelerating pace (1.53% y/y).

Recession Indicators as of July 21

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink bold), all log normalized to 2019M01=0.  Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (6/26 release), and author’s calculations.

Note that manufacturing has recovered somewhat since last posting.

Recession Indicators as of July 21

Figure 2: Manufacturing employment (blue), aggregate hours of production and nonsupervisory workers (red) and production (teal), in logs 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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