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The Manufacturing Downturn Compared to 2014-16

Summary:
In 2014-16, production and non-supervisory employment continued to rise even as hours and production declined. In 2018-19 (as discussed here), all three have declined relative to peak. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment – production and nonsupervisory workers (blue), aggregate hours (teal), manufacturing production (red), in logs 2014M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve Board, via FRED, and author’s calculations.

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In 2014-16, production and non-supervisory employment continued to rise even as hours and production declined. In 2018-19 (as discussed here), all three have declined relative to peak.

The Manufacturing Downturn Compared to 2014-16

Figure 1: Manufacturing employment – production and nonsupervisory workers (blue), aggregate hours (teal), manufacturing production (red), in logs 2014M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve Board, via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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