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Implications of Yield Curve Flattening for the UK

Summary:
In today’s Bloomberg: In Chinn and Kucko (2015), we find that the 10yr-3mo spread is not particularly informative regarding recessions (as defined by ECRI) or industrial production growth in the UK. It is informative regarding real time GDP, however (which is what we’ll see in the coming months regarding 2019-2020). We didn’t report the 10yr-2yr spread results. Source: Chinn and Kucko (2015).

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In today’s Bloomberg:

Implications of Yield Curve Flattening for the UK

In Chinn and Kucko (2015), we find that the 10yr-3mo spread is not particularly informative regarding recessions (as defined by ECRI) or industrial production growth in the UK. It is informative regarding real time GDP, however (which is what we’ll see in the coming months regarding 2019-2020). We didn’t report the 10yr-2yr spread results.

Implications of Yield Curve Flattening for the UK

Source: Chinn and Kucko (2015).

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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