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The Never-Ending Blip

Summary:
On July 9, 2018, almost exactly a year ago, reader CoRev wrote: Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices. Yesterday, from Modern Farmer, “China Stops Buying US Agricultural Products Entirely: This is…very bad“: The latest escalation of the Trump-China trade war has led to an iron door slamming shut. On Tuesday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced that China will no longer be buying American agricultural products, a decision with huge, wide-ranging implications. Zippy Duvall, president of the normally conservative-leaning American Farm Bureau, called the decision a “body

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On July 9, 2018, almost exactly a year ago, reader CoRev wrote:

Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices.

Yesterday, from Modern Farmer, “China Stops Buying US Agricultural Products Entirely: This is…very bad“:

The latest escalation of the Trump-China trade war has led to an iron door slamming shut.

On Tuesday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced that China will no longer be buying American agricultural products, a decision with huge, wide-ranging implications. Zippy Duvall, president of the normally conservative-leaning American Farm Bureau, called the decision a “body blow” to American agriculture.

September futures are 870 as of today (1:15pm). On 3/22/2018 (the announcement of the Section 301), the closing price was 1030.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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