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Bleg: Puzzles in the Hassett Economic Report of the President, 2019

Summary:
In the wake of the discussion of Figure 1-6 in the ERP, I thought it might be useful for me to collect up questions about puzzling or misleading graphs/tables or conclusions in the Report. The entire document is here. I don’t think I have ever made a similar request. However, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a similar CEA “massage the message” in quite the same way. Even the G.W. Bush CEA (of which I was briefly a part of) did not make such blatantly misleading graphics as highlighted in this post. Clarification (3PM): I’ll then compile the contributions with my comments in a new post. By the way, the more transparently reinterpretation of the ERP, 2019 graph… Figure 1: Chinn’s reinterpretation of ERP, 2019 Figure 1-6. Trend growth rates calculated using log differences. Nonresidential

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In the wake of the discussion of Figure 1-6 in the ERP, I thought it might be useful for me to collect up questions about puzzling or misleading graphs/tables or conclusions in the Report.

The entire document is here.

I don’t think I have ever made a similar request. However, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a similar CEA “massage the message” in quite the same way. Even the G.W. Bush CEA (of which I was briefly a part of) did not make such blatantly misleading graphics as highlighted in this post.

Clarification (3PM): I’ll then compile the contributions with my comments in a new post.

By the way, the more transparently reinterpretation of the ERP, 2019 graph…

Bleg: Puzzles in the Hassett Economic Report of the President, 2019

Figure 1: Chinn’s reinterpretation of ERP, 2019 Figure 1-6. Trend growth rates calculated using log differences. Nonresidential investment based on reported aggregates. Equipment investment calculations uses data up to 2017Q3 for the pre-TCJA period. Source: BEA 2018Q3 final release, and author’s calculations.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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