Tuesday , July 23 2019
Home / Econbrowser - James Hamilton / So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)

So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)

Summary:
I’m using Mr. Trump’s definition. Trade deficit overall (NIPA definition) and bilateral with China both increasing. Note that not much progress is apparent even if normalizing by GDP. Figure 2: US net exports (blue), and US-China goods trade balance (red), both as a share of GDP. Net exports NIPA definition, SAAR. US-China is difference of monthly series seaonally adjusted using X-13. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Trump administration shaded orange. Source: BEA, 2018Q3 2nd (preliminary) release. What about Mr. Trump’s favorite — even if irrelevant — measure, that is the goods trade balance. That too is deteriorating. Figure 3: US goods net exports (blue), centered 3-quarter moving average (purple), both as a share of GDP. Goods net exports NIPA definition, SAAR. Trump

Topics:
Menzie Chinn considers the following as important: , ,

This could be interesting, too:

Menzie Chinn writes The Course of the US-China Trade War, Viewed through the Lens of Soybeans

Menzie Chinn writes Of Big Macs, PPP, the Penn Effect, and Currency Misalignment

Menzie Chinn writes Is There a Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment?

Menzie Chinn writes Using Survey Expectations in FX Analyses

I’m using Mr. Trump’s definition. Trade deficit overall (NIPA definition) and bilateral with China both increasing.

So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)

Note that not much progress is apparent even if normalizing by GDP.

So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)
Figure 2: US net exports (blue), and US-China goods trade balance (red), both as a share of GDP. Net exports NIPA definition, SAAR. US-China is difference of monthly series seaonally adjusted using X-13. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Trump administration shaded orange. Source: BEA, 2018Q3 2nd (preliminary) release.

What about Mr. Trump’s favorite — even if irrelevant — measure, that is the goods trade balance. That too is deteriorating.

So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)
Figure 3: US goods net exports (blue), centered 3-quarter moving average (purple), both as a share of GDP. Goods net exports NIPA definition, SAAR. Trump administration shaded orange. Source: BEA, 2018Q3 2nd (preliminary) release.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *