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So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)

Summary:
I’m using Mr. Trump’s definition. Trade deficit overall (NIPA definition) and bilateral with China both increasing. Note that not much progress is apparent even if normalizing by GDP. Figure 2: US net exports (blue), and US-China goods trade balance (red), both as a share of GDP. Net exports NIPA definition, SAAR. US-China is difference of monthly series seaonally adjusted using X-13. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Trump administration shaded orange. Source: BEA, 2018Q3 2nd (preliminary) release. What about Mr. Trump’s favorite — even if irrelevant — measure, that is the goods trade balance. That too is deteriorating. Figure 3: US goods net exports (blue), centered 3-quarter moving average (purple), both as a share of GDP. Goods net exports NIPA definition, SAAR. Trump

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I’m using Mr. Trump’s definition. Trade deficit overall (NIPA definition) and bilateral with China both increasing.

So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)

Note that not much progress is apparent even if normalizing by GDP.

So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)
Figure 2: US net exports (blue), and US-China goods trade balance (red), both as a share of GDP. Net exports NIPA definition, SAAR. US-China is difference of monthly series seaonally adjusted using X-13. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Trump administration shaded orange. Source: BEA, 2018Q3 2nd (preliminary) release.

What about Mr. Trump’s favorite — even if irrelevant — measure, that is the goods trade balance. That too is deteriorating.

So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)
Figure 3: US goods net exports (blue), centered 3-quarter moving average (purple), both as a share of GDP. Goods net exports NIPA definition, SAAR. Trump administration shaded orange. Source: BEA, 2018Q3 2nd (preliminary) release.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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