Wednesday , August 15 2018
Home / Econbrowser - James Hamilton / Acres Burned to Date

Acres Burned to Date

Summary:
Not a record year, yet. Source: WaPo. Figure 1: Acres burned (blue) and acres burned year-to-date 6 August (red), and log linear regression fit (black). Data before 1983 is collected using a different methodology, and hence is not strictly comparable to 1983-2018 data. Source: NIFC1, NIFC2. The regression equation used to estimate the trend is: log(ACRES) = 10.91 + 0.0433×TIME bold denotes significance at 1% msl using HAC robust standard errors. Adj.-R2 = 0.46. DW = 2.09. The coefficient on time can be interpreted as indicating that the number of acres burned is trending up at 4.3% per year, although a 95% confidence interval would encompass a figure as low as 2.9% and as high as 5.7%. The correlation between suppression costs and acres burned is high (see this post). 2017 suppression

Topics:
Menzie Chinn considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Siobhan Miller writes The economics of density: evidence from the Berlin Wall

John H. Cochrane writes EPA, the nature of regulation, and democracy

Menzie Chinn writes Acres Burned, through 29 December

Menzie Chinn writes Wildfires: Acres Burned to Date

Not a record year, yet.


Source: WaPo.

Acres Burned to Date
Figure 1: Acres burned (blue) and acres burned year-to-date 6 August (red), and log linear regression fit (black). Data before 1983 is collected using a different methodology, and hence is not strictly comparable to 1983-2018 data. Source: NIFC1, NIFC2.

The regression equation used to estimate the trend is:

log(ACRES) = 10.91 + 0.0433×TIME

bold denotes significance at 1% msl using HAC robust standard errors. Adj.-R2 = 0.46. DW = 2.09.

The coefficient on time can be interpreted as indicating that the number of acres burned is trending up at 4.3% per year, although a 95% confidence interval would encompass a figure as low as 2.9% and as high as 5.7%.

The correlation between suppression costs and acres burned is high (see this post). 2017 suppression costs by the Federal government (i.e., not including state costs) was $2.9 billion.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *