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Nearly 35 Years of Daily EPU Data, Plotted

Summary:
Ed Hanson asserts that by showing a plot of monthly data constructed as an average of daily data, I am changing the message of the data. In order to assure people that the Trilateral Commission/the Illuminati/CigaretteSmokingMan haven’t “gotten to me” to manipulate the data, I’m going to show permutations of the Baker/Bloom/Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) data, news based index. First, the standard monthly series, shown in this post. Figure 1: Economic policy uncertainty index (news) (blue), NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, vertical solid lines at change of administrations, light orange shading denotes Trump Administration. Source: PolicyUncertainty.com and NBER. Second, the daily data, with centered 7 day moving average.Figure 2: US daily Economic Policy Uncertainty

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Ed Hanson asserts that by showing a plot of monthly data constructed as an average of daily data, I am changing the message of the data. In order to assure people that the Trilateral Commission/the Illuminati/CigaretteSmokingMan haven’t “gotten to me” to manipulate the data, I’m going to show permutations of the Baker/Bloom/Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) data, news based index.

First, the standard monthly series, shown in this post.

Nearly 35 Years of Daily EPU Data, Plotted
Figure 1: Economic policy uncertainty index (news) (blue), NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, vertical solid lines at change of administrations, light orange shading denotes Trump Administration. Source: PolicyUncertainty.com and NBER.

Second, the daily data, with centered 7 day moving average.
Nearly 35 Years of Daily EPU Data, Plotted
Figure 2: US daily Economic Policy Uncertainty index from Baker, Bloom and Davis (dark blue), and seven day centered moving average (red), accessed 3/5/2018. Orange shading denotes Trump Administration. Source: policyuncertainty.com, and author’s calculations.

Third, the daily data, with monthly values.

Nearly 35 Years of Daily EPU Data, Plotted
Figure 3: US daily Economic Policy Uncertainty index from Baker, Bloom and Davis (dark blue), and monthly average of daily data (pink), accessed 3/5/2018. Orange shading denotes Trump Administration. Source: policyuncertainty.com, and author’s calculations.

I hope this dispells any notion that I have manipulated the data.

Menzie Chinn
He is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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