Sunday , July 21 2019
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You Brexit, you bought it

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David
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Summary:
Has it really been three years? We should get them a cake! My daughter, reading the New York Times over my shoulder Like most of the rest of the world, I am just waiting for this slow motion car wreck to get over with at this point. I am not a citizen so I refrain from making a pitch for a new vote or any of that type of thing. I do think the rules for such an important decision were set up in quite an odd fashion, but that ship has sailed (and may not be let into an EU port after Brexit (my daughter just snickered)). I really cannot wait to see the outcome of the vote in Parliament and I am actively clearing my calendar to watch this. The negotiating dynamics have been amazing here, mostly on the Tory side for the purposes of discussion today. We saw the same type of flaws

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Has it really been three years? We should get them a cake!

My daughter, reading the New York Times over my shoulder

Like most of the rest of the world, I am just waiting for this slow motion car wreck to get over with at this point. I am not a citizen so I refrain from making a pitch for a new vote or any of that type of thing. I do think the rules for such an important decision were set up in quite an odd fashion, but that ship has sailed (and may not be let into an EU port after Brexit (my daughter just snickered)).

I really cannot wait to see the outcome of the vote in Parliament and I am actively clearing my calendar to watch this. The negotiating dynamics have been amazing here, mostly on the Tory side for the purposes of discussion today. We saw the same type of flaws repeated in the US as far as the TPP negotiations. You have a vote saying something and then go to negotiate a deal. The deal, or some rough outline of it, should have been a topic of discussion for the voters prior to the vote. I really do not understand what leverage the “Leave” campaign thought they would have with the E.U. in these negotiations.

Now I thought there might be an opportunity for Theresa May to gain some advantage or some extra concession with the way the leadership challenge came about in her party. The failed effort to oust her insulated her from internal challengers for a year. That set her up as the leader of the party and the Prime Minister without any real question. That should have been a position of strength, but I fear most of the strength had already been squandered.

I am not sure I believe the worst of the outcomes predicted and I know I do not believe the everything will go on just the same as before. This is going to be amazing to watch as it happens. If I had to place a guess right now (and I will be making my forecasting class do this) I would expect them to crash out and create a lovely mess for Americans to enjoy and watch as a distraction from our own domestic policy disfunction for a while.

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