Tuesday , August 20 2019
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Paul Krugman
Paul Robin Krugman (born February 28, 1953) is an American economist, Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and an op-ed columnist for The New York Times. In 2008, Krugman won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography.

Paul Krugman

From Trump Boom to Trump Gloom

Last year, after an earlier stock market swoon brought on by headlines about the U.S.-China trade conflict, I laid out three rules for thinking about such events. First, the stock market is not the economy. Second, the stock market is not the economy. Third, the stock market is not the economy.But maybe I should add a fourth rule: The bond market sorta kinda is the economy.An old economists’ joke says that the stock market predicted nine of the last five recessions. Well, an “inverted yield...

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Useful Idiots and Trumpist Billionaires

Whoever came up with the phrase “useful idiots” — it’s often credited to Lenin, but there’s no evidence he ever said it — was on to something. There are times when dangerous political movements derive important support from people who will, if these movements achieve and hold power, be among their biggest victims.Certainly I found myself thinking of the phrase when I read about the Trump fund-raiser held at the Hamptons home of Stephen Ross, chairman of a company that holds controlling stakes...

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China intenta enseñarle a Trump de economía

Para entender la guerra comercial en ciernes con China, lo primero que necesitas entender es que nada de lo que Donald Trump está haciendo tiene sentido. Sus posturas sobre el comercio son incoherentes. Sus demandas son incomprensibles. Y sobrestima por mucho su capacidad de infligir daño a China, mientras que subestima el daño que China puede causarle en consecuencia.Lo segundo es que, hasta ahora, la respuesta de China ha sido bastante modesta y moderada, si se toma en cuenta la situación....

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China Tries to Teach Trump Economics

If you want to understand the developing trade war with China, the first thing you need to realize is that nothing Donald Trump is doing makes sense. His views on trade are incoherent. His demands are incomprehensible. And he vastly overrates his ability to inflict damage on China while underrating the damage China can do in return.The second thing you need to realize is that China’s response so far has been fairly modest and measured, at least considering the situation. The U.S. has...

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Tariff Tantrums and Recession Risks

If the bond market is any indication, Donald Trump’s escalating belligerence on trade is creating seriously increased risks of recession. But I haven’t seen many clear explanations of why that might be so. The problem isn’t just, or even mainly, that he really does seem to be a Tariff Man. What’s more important is that he’s a capricious, unpredictable Tariff Man. And that capriciousness is really bad for business investment.First things first: why do I emphasize the bond market, not the stock...

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Trump’s China Shock

I didn’t know that the Dow was going to drop 750 points, so my latest column is El Paso-related. Probably the right choice anyway, because US-China is moving so fast that anything in the print paper would be out of date.But it does look as if I should try to explain (a) what I think is happening (b) why the markets are going so nuts. By the way, given Mnuchin’s declaration just a few minutes ago that China is a currency manipulator, tomorrow’s market action should be … interesting.So here’s...

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Trump, Tax Cuts and Terrorism

Why has the Republican Party become a systematic enabler of terrorism?Don’t pretend to be shocked. Just look at G.O.P. responses to the massacre in El Paso. They have ranged from the ludicrous (blame video games!) to the almost honest (who would have expected Ted Cruz, of all people, to speak out against white supremacy?). But as far as I can tell, not one prominent Republican has even hinted at the obvious link between Donald Trump’s repeated incitements to violence and the upsurge in hate...

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Trump’s Trade Quagmire (Wonkish)

Remember the Vietnam quagmire? (Actually, I hope many of my readers are young enough that they don’t, but you’ve presumably heard about it.) In political discourse, “quagmire” has come to have a quite specific meaning. It’s what happens when a government has committed itself to a policy that isn’t working, but can’t bring itself to admit failure and cut its losses. So it just keeps escalating, and things keep getting worse.Well, here’s my thought: Trump’s trade war is looking more and more...

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Why Was Trumponomics a Flop?

Donald Trump has pursued two main economic policies. On taxes, he has been an orthodox Republican, pushing through big tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, which his administration promised would lead to a huge surge in business investment. On trade, he has broken with his party’s free(ish) trade policies, imposing large tariffs that he promised would lead to a revival of U.S. manufacturing.On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, even though the unemployment rate is low...

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A Racist Stuck in the Past

Let’s get the obvious stuff out of the way. Yes, Donald Trump is a vile racist. He regularly uses dehumanizing language about nonwhites, including members of Congress. And while some argue that this is a cynical strategy designed to turn out Trump’s base, it is at most a strategy that builds on Trump’s pre-existing bigotry. He would be saying these things regardless (and was saying such things long before he ran for president); his team is simply trying to turn bigoted lemons into political...

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