Wednesday , June 28 2017
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Jared Bernstein: On the economy

That Seattle minimum wage study has some curious results.

[I’m outta town with very shaky internet access, but wanted to make a tiny bit of noise about this I’m quoted in this story about a new paper on the Seattle minimum wage increase–it’s in the process of phasing up to $15/hr–as follows: “The literature shows that moderate minimum wage increases seem to consistently have their intended effects, [but] you have to admit that the increases that we’re now contemplating go beyond moderate. That doesn’t mean, however, that you know what the outcome...

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Links: Recessions risks; the really, really bad Senate GOP health plan; see ya later…

A few links to check out, both over at WaPo. First, no one knows when the next recession will hit though it’s closer now than when I started writing this sentence. But I’ve got two recessionary concerns: one, fiscal policy, both discretionary and automatic will be thoroughly insufficient due to the toxic mix of Congressional dysfunction and austerity; two, financial deregulation will raise the likelihood of another bubble. Second, the Senate health care plan is worse than the House plan....

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Here’s an idea: let’s have Congress micromanage the Fed…what could go wrong?

Over at WaPo. In preparing for something, I was reading the text of the Choice Act–that’s the financial deregulation bill the House recently passed (there’s a link in the piece). I knew the Act included some pretty invasive Fed oversight but when I actually read the legislation (Title X), the old jaw dropped. It writes down the ’93 version of the “Taylor rule” (read the piece for details), and makes the Fed have to jump through hoops if they use any discretion in its application. My piece...

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Is the Fed fighting an old war?

As expected, as their meeting concluded yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and company decided to raise the benchmark interest rate they control by one-quarter of a percentage point. The question is: why? She was, of course, asked about this in lots of different ways in her press conference. [Pause here for a moment and consider the substantive difference between a Yellen press conference and a Spicer press conference. Kinda makes you shudder Specifically, journalists reasonably...

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What’s the Fed Up to? Podcast version.

Sure, you can read the posts here at OTE, and be [choose as many as apply: better informed, entertained, annoyed, put to sleep]. And/or, you can listen to the latest episode of OTE podcast while you’re exercising, cooking, chilling, etc. Get it on SoundCloud, iTunes, Stitchr, Google Play, or TuneIn. This episode is all about the Federal Reserve, which is meeting as we speak, and will almost certainly decide to bump up the interest rate they control. Ben and I talk to Kate Davidson (from the...

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One more point about the KS legislature’s KO (Kansas Override) of supply-side tax cuts

I’ve been citing the KO–the Kansas legislature’s override of Gov. Brownback’s veto, thus pulling the plug on the state’s failed experiment with supply-side tax cuts–ever since I heard about it, as have many others. The story raises welcome hopes that moderate R’s might be waking up to the fiscal reality that many constituents value public goods more than regressive tax cuts. Not to be a downer, but I’ve been pessimistic that DC R’s will learn from KS R’s. That’s partly because facts clearly...

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Recycling an oldie/goodie: You wanna whack this and future recoveries? Get rid of Dodd-Frank

Sorry to recycle, but with the Comey hearings sucking up all the air, folks may have missed that today the House today passed that fahrblunget bit of chazari known as the Choice Act, which largely repeals Dodd-Frank financial reform (it requires D votes in the Senate, so a much heavier lift over there, thankfully). Back in February, I wrote this defense of “finreg” (for WaPo) and while I insert a few updates [in brackets], I think I was as right then as now on this. [From Feb 2, 2017] There...

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This word “deregulation.” I don’t think it does what you think it does.

A quick note on “deregulation,” which is the other half of the mantra, i.e., the phony growth recipe–“tax cuts and deregulation”–you hear endlessly repeated in uninformed DC conversations. I’ve been in these conversations for decades and I have no idea what these people are talking about and neither do they. What, specifically, do they want to “deregulate?” What evidence do they have that to do so would be pro-growth? Obviously, they’re just hand waving. To take a timely example, the House is...

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KS legislature for the win!

Really happy to see the Kansas legislature reject the predictably failed supply-side tax cut “experiment” that’s been whacking the state’s coffers since 2012. Over at WaPo but one extra note here. I’ve heard some supporters of the cuts–and there are surprisingly few, which I consider another gain for humanity–argue: “But KS is adding jobs; GDP is up; just give it a chance!” This is absolute gibberish. It is a completely meaningless defense. We are in year eight of an economic recovery. Job...

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Politically motivated attacks on the CBO from team Trump?! I’m shocked…

Over at WaPo, but I suspect OTE readers will have thoughts to add on this one. I myself often mix it up with CBO re assumptions/results. Recall a set of pieces on both their minimum wage and overtime rule scores. But I very much value their integrity and their critical role as our non-partisan score keeper. Share the post "Politically motivated attacks on the CBO from team Trump?! I’m shocked…"

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