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Global Economic Intersection

The Economist Magazine, Marxism And The Conventional Wisdom

posted on 19 September 2019 by Philip Pilkington Inn September 2013 there was a rather awful piece from The Economist‘s entitled A Marxist Theory is (Sort Of) Right. The piece is indicative of what I think to be a far more general trend in contemporary intellectual life: namely, the fact that Marxism exists as a sort of weird counterpart to what we generally call the ‘conventional wisdom’.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media...

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What Will The Conventional Wisdom In Economics Be After 2008?

posted on 12 September 2019 by Philip Pilkington Article of the Week from Fixing the EconomistsEditor's note: This piece was written almost exactly 6 years ago. Since the author was at that time speculating about the future, it is most interesting to observe how well he hit (or how poorly he missed) the mark.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.I am currently rereading JK Galbraith’s The Affluent Society. It was one of the first...

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Nonfarm Payrolls Not Seasonally Adjusted Tell The Real Story – Unspinning Wall Street

posted on 11 September 2019 by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner Not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, that is, the actual numbers, give us a truer picture of the jobs market than the seasonally adjusted garbage that Wall Street spews.Friday’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls jobs headline numbers disappointed investors with slower than expected growth. But was it really that bad?Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Here’s...

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What The August BLS Headline Miss Did Not Tell You

posted on 11 September 2019 by UPFINA UPFINA Article of the WeekThe August BLS report was a positive, all things considered. Headline job creation missed estimates and private sector job creation missed by even more. However, the labor force participation rate and weekly wage growth improved. At this point in the cycle, we can’t expect amazing job creation growth because the labor market is nearly full. That being said, the weakness in job creation growth is also due to weak...

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Dalio’s Analogue And Mauldin’s Commentary

posted on 08 September 2019 by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline "The best way out is always through." - Robert Frost "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." ―Mark Twain Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. It will not shock you when I say we live in confusing times. Odd, seemingly inconsistent events and decisions don't bring the expected results. Once-reliable rules don't...

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Global Outlook: Deflation Is Back… But

posted on 07 September 2019 by Callum Thomas It's that D-word again. Deflation is knocking at the door of the global economy. But who is going to answer, and who is really at the door? (and so what??) In the following charts and paragraphs I will provide my take on the key drivers, the response, the ripple effects, and a base case scenario for how it plays out heading into 2020. Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.First up is a...

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Impact Of Financialization On Labor

posted on 07 September 2019 by UPFINA Weekend Reading from UPFINA Originally posted 24 October 2017 The American worker is getting fleeced. This has been happening for decades, but in recent years the problem has intensified with current monetary policy and lack of fiscal reform. However, the recent gradual change in monetary policy may provide a light at the end of the tunnel. The only question that remains is if that light is an oncoming train or wage growth. Please share...

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The Holy Grail: Distractions In Econometrics And Economic Modelling

posted on 05 September 2019 by Philip Pilkington Lars Syll wrote an interesting piece on the “confounder" problem in econometrics. This is basically the problem of how do we tell that if there is a relationship between, say, A and B that it is not, in actual fact, being caused by an entirely separate variable, C.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.The problems raised by this are innumerable. Syll’s main point is that in order...

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Where Is The Economy Headed In The Next 6 Months?

posted on 04 September 2019 by UPFINA UPFINA Article of the WeekThe concept of being due for a recession only works if there is excessive leverage. Just because it seems like the U.S. economy needs to have a recession because it hasn’t had one in over a decade doesn’t mean much. Many investors have a bias towards expecting a recession soon because this cycle has been long. Investing experience can be a good thing, but it can also be a hindrance.Please share this article - Go to very...

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Will The Trade War Escalate In 2020?

posted on 31 August 2019 by UPFINA Weekend Reading from UPFINAIn this cycle, states have made it more difficult to qualify for unemployment benefits and have lowered benefits. You can say that in itself is a signal of a strong economy because there would be national outrage if the unemployment rate was high. Remember, early in this expansion the length of unemployment benefits was extended to 99 weeks because people had such a tough time getting a job. The social safety net needed to...

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