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Global Economic Intersection

The Global Economy: What The Future Holds – Part 2

posted on 24 May 2019 by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance IntroductionIn Part 1 of this two-part series, I suggested that the largest countries measured by GDP, population, and geographic area would be the primary drivers of global futures. Here, I look at their military and economic dimensions and draw conclusions.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Military PowerBut before getting to economic data, it is worth covering...

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Probability And The Principle Of Indifference In Applied Economic Reasoning

posted on 23 May 2019 by Philip Pilkington Article of the Week from Fixing the EconomistsCarola Binder has brought my attention to a very commendable post she did regarding how people perceive their chances of being laid off. The results, from the point of view of the application of probability theory to economics, were very interesting.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Here I quote Binder in full:Prior to answering the...

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The Trump Tax Increase

posted on 22 May 2019 by UPFINA UFINA Article of the WeekTrade War Escalates, A Tax Increase On Middle ClassWhile President Trump delayed the global auto tariffs, the situation with China isn’t as good. As we mentioned in a previous article, China is tough to deal with because of the intellectual property dispute. This is about bringing China onto a level playing field with America after decades of being an emerging market. Based on GDP per capita, China isn’t a developed economy,...

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Some International Evidence For Keynesian Economics Without The Phillips Curve

posted on 22 May 2019 from Voxeu.org -- this post authored by Roger Farmer and Giovanni NicolòThe economies of many countries are operating close to full capacity, but unemployment and inflation are both low. Using data from the US, UK and Canada, this column compares differences in the macroeconomic behaviour of real GDP, the inflation rate and the yields on three-month Treasury securities in the three countries. It shows that the Farmer monetary model, closed with a belief function,...

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Takeaways From The SIC

posted on 19 May 2019 by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, “Morning, boys, how’s the water?" And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes, “What the hell is water?" - David Foster Wallace, This Is WaterPlease share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social...

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Can Tariffs Bankrupt Americans?

Since our last article on the U.S. China trade war, China officially retaliated against America’s 25% tariff on $200 billion in goods with its own tariff on $60 billion of American goods. Over 5,000 goods will be taxed at a 25% rate. Other goods will be taxed at a rate of 20% which is an increase from 5% and 10%.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.On the possibility of taxing just about all Chinese imports at a 25% rate, President...

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The Slope Of The Term Structure And Recessions: Evidence From The UK, 1822-2016

posted on 18 May 2019 from Voxeu.org -- this post authored by Terence Mills, Forrest Capie, and Charles GoodhartIt is well known that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information for forecasting the likelihood of a recession in the US. This column examines whether the same is true for the UK. Focusing on three periods - the pre-WWI era, the inter-war years, and the post-WWII period - it finds strong support for the inverted yield curve being a predictor of UK...

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Bayesianism And Non-Ergodicity In Economics

posted on 16 May 2019 by Philip Pilkington The atomic hypothesis which has worked so splendidly in Physics breaks down in Psychics. We are faced at every turn with the problems of Organic Unity, of Discreteness, of Discontinuity - the whole is not equal to the sum of the parts, comparisons of quantity fails us, small changes produce large effects, the assumptions of a uniform and homogeneous continuum are not satisfied. Please share this article - Go to very top of...

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Shelter Inflation Stays High Despite Slower Home Price Growth

posted on 15 May 2019 by UPFINA UPFINA Article of the WeekWhile jobless claims fell in the week of May 4th to 228,000 from 230,000, this report was highly disappointing. 3 weeks prior, when claims increased to 230,000, economists said they jumped because of the Easter holiday season. However, now we have 3 weeks of elevated claims which have caused the 4 week moving average, seen in the chart below, to increase from 201,500 to 220,250.Please share this article - Go to very top of...

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Your Pension May Be Monetized

posted on 12 May 2019 by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline One difficulty in analyzing our economic future is the sheer number of potential crises. When so much could go wrong (and really right, when the exponential technologies I foresee get here), it's hard to isolate, let alone navigate, the real dangers. We are tempted to ignore them all. Ignoring them is usually the right response, too. We can "Muddle Through" almost anything. Please share this article - Go to very...

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