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Ray Dalio – John Mauldin Conversation, Part 6

posted on 14 July 2019 by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline This is the final letter of the six-part series of my reply to Ray Dalio’s essays. Below are some links to help you wrap it all together.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.As Ray notes, the problems he describes really are existential. He and I agree more than we disagree, but our responses differ.I think that we both agree that the wrong answers will cause...

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Real Business Investment Is Not Growing

posted on 12 July 2019 by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner This post is over three months old but the message still holds.Chart of Real Business Investment Has a Shocking DivergenceIn the past the chart of real business investment has always followed the stock market. From 1993 to 2012 real business investment tracked stock prices almost perfectly. That makes sense because corporate decision makers take their investment cues from stock prices. Please share this article - Go to very top...

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Economic Modelling And Artificial Intelligence: Is Economic Reasoning Always Based On A “Hidden” Model?

posted on 11 July 2019 by Philip Pilkington There’s a trope one hears from economists all too often when one discusses the usefulness (or uselessness) of models. The argument usually runs like this: the person questioning the use of models says, for example, that all the useful predictions over the past X number of years have not used formal models; then the person defending the models says that all these predictions were made using models, it was just that the models were not...

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US Treasury Could Run Out Of Cash Sooner Than Expected

posted on 11 July 2019 by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner It’s starting. Headlines are swirling that the US Treasury could run out of cash sooner than originally forecast.The Wall Street Journal featured a report yesterday.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Its sister publication, Marketwatch said yesterday:“The U.S. government could exhaust its ability to pay its bills in the first half of September…according to the...

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Ray Dalio – John Mauldin Discussion, Part 5

posted on 07 July 2019 by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline "The belief that wealth subsists not in ideas, attitudes, moral codes, and mental disciplines but in identifiable and static things that can be seized and redistributed is the materialist superstition. It stultified the works of Marx and other prophets of violence and envy. It frustrates every socialist revolutionary who imagines that by seizing the so-called means of production he can capture the crucial capital of...

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Payroll Employment Data: You Can’t Believe Your Eyes

posted on 05 July 2019 from Jeff Miller, A Dash of Insight The payroll employment report is regarded as the most important economic news of the month. It is also the most misunderstood.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.To illustrate, please consider this chart. Does it represent a relatively straight line?More about that below, but first we need some background.Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics makes an estimate of...

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Keynes’ Philosophy: Induction, Analogy And Probability

posted on 04 July 2019 by Philip Pilkington Article of the Week from Fixing the EconomistsIn a recent post I dealt with Keynes’ opinions on the application of statistics and theories based on probability (e.g. econometrics). There I noted that Keynes thought that much applied work failed because it improperly deployed the use of Analogy and Induction. The natural question, which some then asked, was “what on earth are Analogy and Induction?"Please share this article - Go to very top...

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Ray Dalio-John Mauldin Discussion, Part 4

posted on 01 July 2019 by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline This week is the fourth in a series of five open letters responding to a series of essays by Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates. His original letters are Why and How Capitalism Needs to Be Reformed, Parts 1 and 2 and It’s Time to Look More Carefully at ‘Monetary Policy 3 (MP3)’ and ‘Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)’. My replies are here, here, and here. Today I continue my response.I was quite pleasantly...

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GDP Estimate 1Q 2019 Remains Strong

posted on 27 June 2019 Written by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute June 27, 2019 - BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2019 GDP Growth Slightly Upward to 3.14%: In their third (and final) estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2019, the Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.14% annual rate, up +0.07 percentage points (pp) from the previous report, and up +0.98pp from the prior quarter.Please share this article - Go to very top of page,...

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Long Live Hydraulic Keynesianism: Krugman On Godley And Vernengo On Krugman

posted on 27 June 2019 by Philip Pilkington Fixing the Economists Article of the WeekRecently I commented on a piece that was run in the NYT on Wynne Godley and other Levy Institute scholars. Since then Paul Krugman has weighed in on the debate and Matias Vernengo has responded. Even though I’ve been known to be somewhat harsh on Krugman I think that the piece he wrote actually contains the seeds of a constructive conversation - unlike his typical approach to heterodox economists...

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