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Global Economic Intersection

As Scientists Have Long Predicted, Warming Is Making Heatwaves More Deadly

posted on 26 July 2021 Written by Econintersect Guest -- this post authored by Dana Nuccitelli, Yale Climate ConnectionsIn its 2001 Third Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) foresaw that global warming would lead to increasingly deadly heatwaves. The world’s top climate scientists warned:“More hot days and heatwaves are very likely over nearly all land areas. These increases are projected to be largest mainly in areas where soil moisture decreases...

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Federal Reserve Folly

posted on 25 July 2021 by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline Great news: The US economy is officially out of recession. We know this because the National Bureau of Economic Research's official recession-calling committee said so this week. The economy has been in an expansion phase since last April, making this the shortest recession on record at only two months. Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. The NBER...

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My Coding Mix

posted on 23 July 2021 by Blair Fix Last week I ran a Twitter survey to see what software my fellow researchers use.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.As an avid R user myself, this result didn’t surprise me. But it did make me think about my own approach to coding. In this post I’m going to share the tools that I use for my research.To get a sense for my coding habits, I wrote a script to scan all of my code and break it down...

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Outlook For Oil – 9.5 Years Ago

posted on 22 July 2021 by Philip Pilkington What follows is a complicated piece by Chris Cook, former director of the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). While there is no way to improve upon Chris' own nuance and knowledge of the oil industry, as an outsider I had to study the argument rather hard to make sense of it - reflecting my limited knowledge of the industry rather than anything else. So, I provide a short summary of Chris' overarching argument for the interested...

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Monetary Policy Is Not Expansionary

posted on 21 July 2021 by Lance Roberts, Clarity Financial Monetary policy is not expansionary despite widespread belief otherwise.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.The general assumption by the Federal Reserve is that by providing excess reserves to the banking system, the banks would then lend to businesses and individuals to expand economic activity. Furthermore, as discussed previously, the Federal Reserve’s entire...

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Xi’s Big Mistake

posted on 18 July 2021 by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline I have mixed feelings about China. On the plus side, I think the country’s massive economic transformation may be one of the most impressive events in human history.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Bringing hundreds of millions from primitive rural lives into relatively prosperous cities within a few years was awe-inspiring. I greatly admire the millions of...

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Is Human Probability Intuition Actually ‘Biased’?

posted on 16 July 2021 by Blair Fix According to behavioral economics, most human decisions are mired in ‘bias’. It muddles our actions from the mundane to the monumental. Human behavior, it seems, is hopelessly subpar.1Or is it?Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.You see, the way that behavioral economists define ‘bias’ is rather peculiar. It involves 4 steps:Start with the model of the rational, utility-maximizing individual...

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Fiscal Austerity Intensifies The Increase In Inequality After Pandemics

posted on 16 July 2021 From Voxeu.org -- this post authored by Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Pietro Pizzuto In the aftermath of past pandemics, fiscal policy played an important role in reducing or amplifying income inequality. This column predicts the likely distributional effects of Covid-19 by analysing evidence from five previous outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and Zika). It finds that severe austerity measures were associated with inequality...

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The Model That Maketh The Man? Wynne Godley In The NYT

posted on 15 July 2021 by Philip Pilkington Article of the Week from Fixing the EconomistsThe New York Times ran an article in 2013 appraising the work of Wynne Godley and his colleagues and followers. This is fantastic. It is great to see this approach to economics, which the NYT rightly notes predicted the 2008 crash, get the proper media attention it deserves. The article, however, while extremely well-written and well-informed, is indicative of a danger that I have long been...

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Snapshots Of Global Wealth

posted on 15 July 2021 by Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist The Credit Suisse Research Institute has published Global Wealth Report 2021, its annual report looking at levels and distribution of wealth around the world (June 2021). Here are a few snapshots and comments from the report.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.This figure shows the wealth pyramid. As the report notes, “Our calculations suggest, for example, that a...

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