Tuesday , October 17 2017
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Our economics correspondents consider the fluctuations in the world economy and the policies intended to produce more booms than busts

Free Exchange Economist

Richard Thaler’s work demonstrates why economics is hard

RICHARD THALER has won the Nobel prize in economic sciences this year for his contributions to behavioural economics. It's a well-deserved prize and a clarifying one, as far as economics is concerned. For a very long time, economists hoped to treat individuals a bit like particles in physics, whose activity can be described by a few well-understood rules, which allow researchers to model and understand complex interactions between particles. The rules, they reckoned, were things like perfect...

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The Nobel in economics rewards a pioneer of “nudges”

NOT long ago, the starting assumption of any economic theory was that humans are rational actors who maximise their utility. Economists summarily dismissed anyone insisting otherwise. But over the past few decades, behavioural economists like Richard Thaler have progressively chipped away at this notion. They combine economics with insights from psychology to show how heavily economic decisions are influenced by cognitive biases. On September 9th Mr Thaler’s work was recognised at the highest...

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Bitcoin is fiat money, too

FINANCIERS with PhDs like to remind each other to “read your Kindleberger". The rare academic who could speak fluently to bureaucrats and normal people, Charles Kindleberger designed the Marshall Plan and wrote vast economic histories worthy of Tolstoy. “Read your Kindleberger” is just a coded way of saying “don’t forget this has all happened before”. So to anyone invested in, mining or building applications for distributed ledger money such as bitcoin or ethereum: read your...

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The case against shrinking the Fed’s balance-sheet

AS EXPECTED, the Federal Reserve announced on September 20th that it will soon begin reversing the asset purchases it made during and after the financial crisis. From October, America’s central bank will stop reinvesting all of the money it receives when its assets start to mature. As a result, its $4.5trn balance-sheet will gradually shrink. However, the Fed did not give any clues as to what the endpoint for the balance-sheet should be. This is an important question. There are strong...

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Is there a wage growth puzzle in America?

TODAY’S labour market report showed that the American economy created 156,000 net new jobs in August. That was a bit less than expected, but payrolls are still growing comfortably faster than the working-age population. Despite having created over 2m jobs in the last year, pushing unemployment below 4.5% for the last five months, wage growth remains muted, at around 2.5%, compared to more like 3.5% the last time unemployment was comparably low. In a recent article for the print edition, I...

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The hubris of ten-year budgets

IN February of 2001, Alan Greenspan, then still the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and still called the “Maestro”, testified to the Senate Budget Committee. The committee wanted to get started on the tax cuts George W. Bush had promised during his campaign. Mr Greenspan gave them his qualified blessing, with an argument that now sounds incredible: he was worried that America would pay down its debt too soon. That week the Clinton administration’s Office of Management and Budget had released...

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Podcast: Goodbye, Benito

Brazil’s rigid labour market regulations were transplanted wholesale from Benito Mussolini’s Italy back in 1943. Now President Michel Temer has approved an overhaul. Will it encourage job creation? Also, an exorcist in Paris fighting “bad spirits”. And why President Trump is playing hardball in renegotiating NAFTA.

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Podcast: Vorsprung durch Angst

Germany is admired for a stable economy and holding on to blue-collar jobs but derided for its persistent trade surpluses. Our economics editor John O’Sullivan examines what Chancellor Merkel’s government might do next. Also, how “total immersion” could drive the masses to virtual reality.

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Podcast: Vorsprung durch Angst

Germany is admired for a stable economy and holding on to blue-collar jobs but derided for its persistent trade surpluses. Our economics editor John O’Sullivan examines what Chancellor Merkel’s government might do next. Also, how “total immersion” could drive the masses to virtual reality.

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Podcast: The Italian bailout job

Italy has been forced to bail out two banks at a cost of as much €17bn euros ($19 bn). Is that the end of the bleeding in Italy's financial sector? Also, as the iPhone turns ten, we look at how Apple is evolving. And Catherine Mann, Chief Economist at the OECD, tells us how to government can help workers made jobless by globalisation.

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