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Why Is Gazprom’s Output on the Decline?

photo: Ricardo Cabral The monopoly is forced to adjust supplies against falling demand on the Russian and European markets. In the past year, Gazprom has set a new anti-record for gas production. Based on the results for the past 12 months, its production volume is set to 409.4 billion cubic metres in the wake of the company’s updated projections. Earlier this year, the company had anticipated that production would reach 417.2 billion cubic metres in 2016. Then,...

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Trump Tariffs Threaten to Undermine World Trade in 2017

Photo: Dirk Dallas As world trade and investment have plateaued, globalization has ground to a halt. The timing could not be worse for the Trump tariffs. In the recent Central Economic Work Conference, stability became the common denominator for China’s economic planning in 2017. And next year, the new central committee will is likely to speed up the reform push toward the late 2010s. Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump chose Peter Navarro, a long-standing China...

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The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017

Source  Key takeaway – Across the globe, populism and protectionism are on the rise and macro fundamentals remain weak. In this challenging context, growth will remain subdued in 2017, hampered by sluggish investment and productivity, ever-accumulating savings and modest inflation. With the exception of the Unites States (US), developed markets (DMs) will stagnate, burdened by debt and structural rigidities. In the US, if Trump’s policies veer toward pragmatism, the...

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The 2015 Globie: “Global Inequality”

photo: Source Each year I name a book as the “Globalization Book of the Year” (also known as the “Globie”). The selection is a recognition of its author’s contribution to our understanding of the causes and effects of globalization. There is no money attached to the prize—recognition is the sole reward. Recent winners can be found here and here. This year’s awardee is Global Inequality by Branko Milanovic. The book has received a great deal of well-deserved attention...

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Has the Embargo Damaged Farmers in Europe?

photo: Wayne Stadler EU food products exporters have not been affected as much from the counter-sanctions as Russian consumers. In November, at an ‘Action Forum’ of the All-Russia People’s Front, Vladimir Putin promised not to reverse the food embargo for as long as possible. Russia had been forced to restrict the import of farm produce in response to Western sanctions, the President stressed. Russian counter-sanctions, however, did not deal a serious blow to EU...

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Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries

photo: Kurtis Garbutt Recently, foreign holders of US treasuries have been dumping their holdings more and at record pace. Optimists see it as a temporary fluctuation. Realists warn about structural change. According to US Treasury data, major foreign holders of US treasury securities have been reducing their holdings by almost $250 billion since March. The pace of dumping has intensified with some $200 billion reduced in just past two months. In the process, Japan has...

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Seeing Past US Hegemony: A Liberal Global Trading System Without the United States

photo: Bridget Coila Can the global liberal international trading system survive without the participation of the United States? Given the probability of Donald Trump taking office as US President on 20 January 2017 (crisis of legitimacy and Russian interference in US elections notwithstanding), the question must be asked and answered. The world’s nations, transnational firms, and civil society organizations need to begin to imagine a global trading system from which...

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What Is the Nairu and Why Does it Matter?

Author: Ed Dolan  ·  December 19th, 2016  ·   › Share This Print In December 2016, after a year-long pause, the Fed resumed its tightening of monetary policy. As usual, the action took the form of a quarter point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate (a key rate that banks charge  on short-term loans to one another)....

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What Would You Do with $2.2 Trillion Dollars?

The groundswell of businesses that want to be more purposeful and work alongside government and civil society organizations means that we should dream bigger about how to solve some of the biggest challenges the world faces today. And maybe money isn’t an excuse anymore, given a report by the New York Times (in the United States) and research by Grant Thornton (in the United Kingdom), showing that the balance sheets of companies in these two countries alone have $2.2...

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The Development Mutants Are Coming … and We Care

Mutants are organisms that mutate due to a change in their composition or structure. In the development industry, we are starting to recognize mutants that slowly, but inexorably, are beginning to compete in the space historically reserved for international financial institutions. How can we understand these changes? And how can we use these mutants to improve lives in Latin America and the Caribbean? Let us start from the beginning. There is no industry or sector that...

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