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The US-China Trade War Is Accelerating China’s Rebalancing

the leap to the top of the technology ladder is what seems to be required long before China's expected time ​ The Trump government has been imposing restrictions on access to technologies by Chinese telecommunications firms. Why and what are the consequences? The Federal Communications Commission is about to ban carriers from using government funds to buy equipment from Huawei and ZTE. Other government agencies are expected to take similar measures. This is just the latest episode of a...

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The IMF, Argentina and Ecuador: Have Lessons Been Learned?

The lender’s emergency role means it must always deal with risk, a former official writes. Following the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) went through a period of self-examination. The old joke that its acronym stood for “It’s Mostly Fiscal” bothered some of its leaders, who believed the organization needed to focus less on austerity and more thoroughly consider issues such as inequality, poverty reduction and gender equality when making loans and...

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Kuwait’s Frustrating Socio-Economic Transformation

Why Kuwait's public and lawmakers don’t buy into economic reforms yet Kuwait’s Frustrating Socio-Economic Transformation Dr. Leif Rosenberger Chief Economist, ACERTAS Introduction: At first glance, Kuwait appears to be a role model for other countries in the world. Kuwait is the most democratic Arab country in the Middle East. Kuwait mediates conflicts in this troubled region. And since World War 2, oil wealth has made Kuwait one of the world’s richest countries. Kuwait has 6% of the world's...

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Turning Promises into Reality

The Business Case for Gender Equality in Achieving the SDGs By Paula Tavares and Otaviano Canuto ­ As world leaders gathered this month for high-level talks at the 74th United Nations General Assembly, pressing global issues were at the forefront of discussions, including progress toward the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While taking stock of how far we have come in realizing commitments in key areas, including to end poverty and hunger, expand access to health,...

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Latin America Is Not Benefiting from the U.S.-China Trade War

Despite some short-term benefits, trade deviation to the region shouldn’t be expected to last. [**First appeared at Americas Quarterly**](https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/latin-america-not-benefiting-us-china-trade-war) Has the U.S. trade war with China been good for Latin America? An increase in Chinese demand for primary products from the region, as well as recent news of production transfers from China to Mexico, might give...

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The IMF needs a bridge-builder at the helm – that’s what it looks set to get

The Bulgarian-born economist Kristalina Georgieva: the first managing director of the IMF to come from Eastern Europe If elected next Wednesday, the Bulgarian-born economist Kristalina Georgieva will be the first managing director of the IMF to come from Eastern Europe The world economy is in a fragile state, with heightened trade tensions and worries of rising debt leading to a global downturn. After a decade-long expansionary cycle, the IMF’s top priority must be to minimize the risk of...

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How Syria’s Gross Mismanagement of Water is Critical Factor Leading to Civil War

Drought, food insecurity, migration, social unrest and Assad's indifference fuel conflict Dr. Leif Rosenberger, Chief Economist, ACERTAS Introduction On 14 March 2011 international security analysts were predicting that Syria was stable and immune from Arab Spring. [1] The next day the Syrian civil war erupted and has been going strong ever since then. What went wrong? What did the “realists” miss? [2] In thinking about the Syrian civil war and whether it could have been avoided, many...

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Oman’s Make or Break Economic Transition

Oman's turbulent journey on oil and post-oil tracks in a cash crunch. Oman’s Make or Break Economic Transition Dr. Leif Rosenberger, Chief Economist, ACERTAS Introduction The Sultan of Oman thought he had a problem back in 2011 when Arab Spring swept across his country. [1] Unemployment – especially among the youth – was acute and Oman had the lowest per capita GDP in the GCC. The Sultan was understandably fearful that social unrest could threaten his monarchy unless his government did...

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Fed Monetary Policy, Inverted Yield Curve and US and Global Economic Outlooks

We approach here whether lights on next monetary policy events can be obtained from reading the Fed's minutes of July **Satyandra Nayak and Otaviano Canuto** Since the Fed’s July meeting, when the Fed Funds Rate had a 0.25% cut, fears about the impact of the US-China trade war on the global economy have escalated. The US yield curve inversion received much attention as a harbinger of a slowdown in the global and US economic outlooks. We approach here whether lights on next monetary policy...

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Argentina’s half-baked adjustment has not worked

Argentina’s peso tumbled and stocks plunged after last Sunday’s primary elections. Argentina’s peso tumbled and stocks plunged after last Sunday’s primary elections. The perception of a likely victory of President Macri’s opponents – Alberto Fernandez, and running mate, Christina Fernandez de Kirchner - has sparked a new shift in investor preferences away from peso assets, pressures on the exchange rate, and hikes on sovereign spreads. Unless fears of a return to policies prevailing before...

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