Wednesday , June 28 2017
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Econbrowser – James Hamilton

Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017 Scored

Or, the GOP plan to eliminate the surplus population From CBO: CBO and JCT estimate that enacting this legislation would reduce the cumulative federal deficit over the 2017-2026 period by $321 billion. That amount is $202 billion more than the estimated net savings for the version of H.R. 1628 that was passed by the House of Representatives. The Senate bill would increase the number of people who are uninsured by 22 million in 2026 relative to the number under current law, slightly fewer...

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Guest Contribution: “The Sugar Swamp”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A appeared on June 22nd in Project Syndicate. As the US, Mexico and Canada get ready to begin talks on the re-negotiation of NAFTA – possibly as early as August – governments are giving a lot of attention to one particular product: sugar. The outcome will predictably be a sweet deal for...

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Guest Contribution: “Time-varying Models for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Adjunct Professor of Economics, University Paris Nanterre, France). The views expressed here are those solely of the author. This is the title of a Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN) – Pierre Werner Chair conference organized last week at the European University Institute in Florence (Italy) by Fabio Canova (Norwegian Business School and EUI), Massimiliano Marcellino (Bocconi Univ.), Barbara Rossi...

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Double Time to Trade War?

From Politico’s Morning Trade: RAPID PACE OF STEEL PROBE DISCONCERTING: Some Democratic lawmakers could soon press the administration over concerns that a potential Trump decision to restrict steel imports to protect national security could be challenged at the World Trade Organization if the Commerce Department does not provide a convincing basis for any action, Morning Trade has learned. The United States last used the Section 232 law to consider restricting imports in 2001, at the...

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Pangloss in Wisconsin

In search of a “supply side success” after the end of the Kansas experiment, conservative observers turn to Wisconsin. The Manhattan Institute’s Mr. Reidl declares victory: Wisconsin’s job growth over the past six years has been extraordinarily strong. When last we met Mr. Reidl, he was explaining why fiscal policy could have no impact on GDP because, well, because. That does not augur well for his abilities an economic analysis, and indeed we can easily poke holes into the argument that...

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Fed balance-sheet reduction not scaring anyone

Today the Federal Reserve announced that it is increasing its target for the fed funds rate to a new range of 1 to 1.25%, a development that surprised no one. But something that was not heralded in advance was the announcement that the Fed intends to “begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.” The Fed spelled out in detail exactly what that will entail. Sometime later this year, the Fed will begin limiting...

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Treasury debt held by the public

How much does the U.S. government owe? The number that is subject to the recurrent debt-ceiling wrangling includes intra-government debts that the Treasury is imputed to owe to other Federal government operations. For example, Social Security taxes have historically exceeded benefits paid out. The surplus was used to pay for other government programs, and the Social Security Trust Fund was credited with corresponding holdings of U.S. Treasury securities representing the accumulated value of...

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“The Transmission of Macroprudential and Monetary Policies across Borders”

That’s the title of a one day conference at the margins of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, organized by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) and the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the IMF, aimed at featuring research on the international transmission of macroprudential and monetary policies and to discuss policy implications from this research. IBRN is led by Claudia Buch and Linda Goldberg. Speakers included Anat Admati, Svein Andresen, Matthieu Bussiere,...

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The Pound on 8 June 2017

The UK voters look set to provide another surprise. The pound has moved substantially as exit poll data has come out. Source: TradingEconomics, accessed 5pm CST. From Reuters Instant View: LEE HARDMAN, CURRENCY ANALYST AT MUFG“The market will be praying that this exit poll has got it wrong. Currency volatility is the best proxy for market fears. If the Conservative ship is sinking then the market will be looking for a life boat.”

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