Sunday , March 24 2019
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Econbrowser – James Hamilton

Update: Mr. Stephen Moore’s Peer Reviewed Journal Articles

Below are the peer-reviewed journal articles authored or co-authored by Stephen Moore, CNN “economic expert”:           This list might be incomplete. His non-peer reviewed articles/books include the annually published Rich States, Poor States, and the associated Laffer-Moore-Williams economic outlook ranking. My assessment of the empirical relevance of their index is in this post.

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Inversion!

Of the 10yr-3mo spread. Source: Bloomberg. For context, see what has happened each time an inversion of 10yr-3mo has occurred. Figure 1: 10 year-3 month Treasury term spread (blue), 10 year-2 year Treasury term spread (red), March 2019 observations for 3/22 noon, all in %. Three month rate is secondary market. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, Reuters, NBER and author’s calculations.  For the implications, see Chinn and Kucko (2015). See also Klein...

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MMT for the ADD

I’ve written up a draft set of notes for my undergraduate macro students. Here is my interpretation of Modern Monetary Theory for them. Comments welcome. This post is for those who are unable to read an entire completely verbal exposition regarding Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). MMT has been the source of some debate recently. Instead of critiquing the literature, I attempt to illustrate the approaches for “paleo-Keynesians” relying on Wray (2011), Bell (1998), and the interpretations by...

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Self-Professed Policy Analyst Predicts Minimum-Wage Induced Employment Disaster [CORRECTED]

[Graph corrected 3/18 of 3/15 post– apologies to all for the error of using NY-wide series in the earlier post] New York City. Inveterate commenter Steven Kopits cites an article from some publication called “Liberty Nation”: 76.50% of full service restaurant respondents reduced employee hours, and 36.30% eliminated jobs in 2018, in response to mandated wage increases. 75% of limited service restaurant respondents report that they will reduce employee hours, and 53.10% will eliminate jobs...

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Self-Professed Policy Analyst Predicts Minimum-Wage Induced Employment Disaster

In New York City. Inveterate commenter Steven Kopits cites an article from some publication called “Liberty Nation”: 76.50% of full service restaurant respondents reduced employee hours, and 36.30% eliminated jobs in 2018, in response to mandated wage increases. 75% of limited service restaurant respondents report that they will reduce employee hours, and 53.10% will eliminate jobs in 2019 as a result of mandated wage increases that took effect on December 31, 2018. This is a pretty...

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Guest Contribution: “The ECB has reached the end of its rope, leaving the eurozone with few options”

Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments.     It seems a puzzle why, at its March 7 meeting, the European Central Bank indulged in sedate tinkering despite the mounting risk of a damaging eurozone recession. The puzzle has a simple...

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