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Casey Mulligan: Supply and Demand

The Supply and Demand (in that order) blog by Professor Casey Mulligan (University of Chicago) examines various economic issues like fiscal policy, labor economics, and industrial organization using basic economic tools. The blog has pivoted to cover more health economics lately.

Is the Missing ERP Revealing Bad News about Biden’s Health?

15 USC 1022(a) requires"The President shall annually transmit to the Congress not later than 10 days after the submission of the budget ... an economic report (hereinafter in this chapter referred to as the “Economic Report”) together with the annual report of the Council of Economic Advisers...."Because the budget was submitted March 28, 2022, yesterday was the due date for submitting the 2022 Economic Report of the President.   No report has been released in 2022 and neither the White...

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New Emissions Regulations are Coercive Paternalism, not Environmental Science, or even Benevolent Paternalism

Trump's CEA showed, based on credit transactions among manufacturers, that vehicle standards to abate a ton of CO2 cost about $163 on the margin, while even Obama said the abatement was worth only $50.  i.e., tightening emissions regulations fails a cost-benefit test by a wide margin. Now Biden claims that new stricter standards pass a cost benefit test.  Although this will be cast as an environmental issue, the new conclusion is driven by assumptions unrelated to environmental economics...

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White House Economic Analysis of Ukraine

The 2019 Economic Report of the President includes the most extensive economic analysis of Ukraine of any President going back at least to Truman.  It discussed:Historical harms -- including murder -- imposed on Ukraine by Moscow (Chapter 8),The extensive costs of the collective ownership imposed on Ukrainian agriculture, asking why would collective ownership of healthcare work out any better if the economic incentives were the same (Chapter 8),How the New York Times covered up and lied...

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The Most Tardy ERP in History

The White House Council of Economic Advisers' Annual Report, a.k.a., Economic Report of the President, has not yet been transmitted to Congress as of today, the 89th day of 2022.This is the latest ERP transmittal ever, with the previous record being 2019, which was transmitted on the 78th day (signed on the 77th -- see photo below) following a prolonged federal government shutdown.  By law, the ERP must be transmitted to Congress annually.  Initially, the deadline was within 60 days of when...

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Social Justice Thrives in Cook County during Tradeoff Holiday

During this terrible pandemic, a silver lining has been that many inconvenient tradeoffs no longer apply. A Yale study showed that paying people not to work does not, for the time being, prevent anyone from working. Perhaps also emptying the prisons can enhance public safety. We can have social justice and safety at the same time.Figure 1 below shows points-in-time numbers of people in Illinois prisons who were convicted in Cook County and admitted to prison within the past half year....

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3rd release of Build Back Better: 7 million less employment

Last night a third release of BBB was shown to the public.  Both in pages and overall economics, it is in between the 1st and 2nd editions.First-release items resurrected yesterdayRepeal of Trump's terrible rebate rule (Section 139301).  It is likely illegal so repealing it does nothing but CBO probably will credit Dems with cutting about spending by about $200B with this provision.Drug "Price Negotiation Program" (Section 139001).Rx "Drug Inflation Rebates" (Section 139101).Favors to labor...

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Revised Build Back Better: Cliffnotes

Hidden Work DisincentivesI had been tracking 13 types.  Three disappeared from today's revised bill.  The Medicaid expansions appear to be less.  Affordable housing was cut in half (still at $150B).  Dems once aspired to allow union dues to be tax deductible but that was cut.  Many other pro-union provisions remain.The new childcare program has now replaced an income phaseout above 250% median income with a cliff.  This change from last month's bill to lastest draft has little effect on the...

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Childcare in “Build Back Better”

Section 23001 of the "Build Back Better" bill would use the Obamacare mold to create a federal childcare program. Low-cost (a.k.a., "low quality") childcare would prohibited unless the provider were to forgo all federal dollars, which would involve something like having zero children from a family at or below $200K annual income.Childcare workers would have to be paid as much as elementary-school teachers.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, elementary school teachers earned an...

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Build Back Better’s Hefty Penalties on Work

Largely by stepping toward an economy in which workers bear the burden of distributing healthcare and housing with little regard to ability or willingness to pay, the Build Back Better bill (BBB) would implement the single largest permanent increase in work disincentives since the income tax came into its own during World War II. The bill would also reduce work by limiting competition in the labor market, imposing employer mandates, and increasing consumer prices for telecommunications,...

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Michael T. Maloney: A Few Memories

Michael T. Maloney passed away this week. We both loved applied price theory and golfed to the exact same handicap.We both liked sailing too and together sailed around Long Island in less than 24 hours. He frequently asked why we had to spend so much time scouring the ocean for our competition. To this day I don’t know how to answer this question coming from a first-class IO economist, but perhaps he did not want to imitate Ahab too much.I wish to find better pictures (Skip has several on...

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