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The author Carola Binder
Carola Binder
She is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Haverford College. I earned a PhD in Economics at UC Berkeley in May 2015, with fields in macroeconomics and economic history.

Carola Binder: Quantitative Ease

Professor Carola Binder (Haverford College) shares her detailed and technical analysis of U.S. monetary policy, inflation and economic history at Quantitative Ease. Her commentary is spot on and well reasoned.

Central Banking Stories to Watch in 2019

Happy New Year, everybody! 2018 has been a quiet year for my blog, but productive on other fronts, as I've kept busy with research and my family. But here are a few central bank-related stories I'm interested in following in the new year. 1. New Governor at Reserve Bank of IndiaFollowing the early exit of Governor Urjit Patel in December, Prime Minister Modi appointed the third central bank governor in just three years: Shaktikanta Das. Patel's resignation followed reported pressure from...

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Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump

My paper "Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump" is now published in the Journal of Macroeconomics. Here is an open-access link to the official version (through October 20, 2018). And here is my new website which has links to the ungated versions of this and my other papers.The key takeaway of this paper is that, though gas prices and average household inflation expectations are correlated, consumers do not seem to overweight gas prices when forming inflation expectations. Since...

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“Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past”

I am at the Liberal Arts Macro Workshop at Wake Forest University. The plenary talk last night wasby the authors of "Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past." Philip Glandon, Kenneth N. Kuttner, Sandeep Mazumder, and Caleb Stroup read over 1000 papers from five top macroeconomics journals to catalog the epistemology, methodology, theoretical framework, and several other key characteristics of the papers (see table below).They read all regular articles (not e.g. book reviews) from the...

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From Senior Thesis to Publication

One of the most challenging and rewarding aspects of my job at Haverford College is advising senior theses. At Haverford, every student in every major writes a senior thesis (or equivalent capstone project). I co-teach the senior thesis course in the fall with two or three colleagues, and advise thesis writers in the spring. In the fall, students work on choosing a topic and research question, conducting a literature review, and developing a research proposal. In the spring, they work...

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Snapshot of the Publication and Review Process as an Assistant Professor

I have just completed my third year as an Assistant Professor. I have kept a spreadsheet for the three years of all of my journal submissions and the results (desk reject, referee reject, revise and resubmit, or accept, with dates for nearly everything). I had almost no idea what the publication process would be like when I finished grad school, and would have loved to see such a spreadsheet. So I thought I'd share some summary statistics in case this can help some new researchers or give...

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Mortgage-Backed Securities Ratings and Losses Maybe Not So Bad

An NBER working paper released today conducts a "post mortem" on the role of non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the 2008 financial crisis. The authors, Juan Ospina and Harald Uhlig, suggest that some of the standard narratives about the financial crisis were "created in the heat of the moment" and merit re-examination a decade later. "One such standard narrative has it that the financial meltdown of 2008 was caused by an overextension of mortgages to weak borrowers, repackaged...

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D is for Devastating: A Statistical Error and the Vitamin D Saga

Statistical errors in research are quite common in research, and not always detected. As economists are well aware, when an error with important policy implications is revealed, it may prompt a media frenzy. I was surprised to learn recently of a major statistical error with potentially huge public health implications, yet with seemingly sparse media coverage when it was revealed. The error concerns the Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA) of Vitamin D. A 2014 paper found a statistical error...

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To Eradicate or to Manage?

I am lucky that the American Economic Association annual meetings are in my city this year, so I made it easily to the sessions despite the snow and bitter cold. On Saturday, January 6, I attended an excellent 8 a.m. session on central bank communication. I may write more about the session later—I already tweeted some of it—but for now I wanted to share an interesting aside made by Alan Blinder. He said something like, “In life, some problems are solved and some are managed.” The context...

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Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Holding Steady

I recently updated my Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Index through October 2017. Data is available here and the official (gated) publication in the Journal of Monetary Economics is here. Inflation uncertainty remains low by historic standards. Uncertainty about longer-run (5- to 10-year ahead) inflation remains lower than uncertainty about next-year inflation. In recent months, there has been no notable change in inflation uncertainty at either horizon. The average "less uncertain"...

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Is Taylor a Hawk or Not?

Two Bloomberg articles published just a week apart call John Taylor, a contender for Fed Chair, first hawkish, then dovish. The first, by Garfield Clinton Reynolds, notes: ...The dollar rose and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell on Monday after Bloomberg News reported Taylor, a professor at Stanford University, impressed President Donald Trump in a recent White House interview.  Driving those trades was speculation that the 70 year-old Taylor would push rates up to higher levels than a...

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