Tuesday , January 19 2021
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What’s Wrong with this Reasoning?

Summary:
FACT: the population density of NYC is 27K per square mile FACT: the population density of Indianapolis is 2K per square mile FACT: COVID-19 was able to be introduced and spread in a city with only 2K susceptible people per square mile (Indianapolis is such a city). Conclusion: COVID-19 will continue to spread in NYC until either (i) the number of susceptible people falls to 2K per square mile or (ii) a vaccine.  i.e., until more than 90% of NYC has contracted and recovered from COVID-19.  [This conclusion says nothing about time frame; i.e., it could be years] Does the conclusion follow from the three facts?

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  1. FACT: the population density of NYC is 27K per square mile
  2. FACT: the population density of Indianapolis is 2K per square mile
  3. FACT: COVID-19 was able to be introduced and spread in a city with only 2K susceptible people per square mile (Indianapolis is such a city).
Conclusion: COVID-19 will continue to spread in NYC until either (i) the number of susceptible people falls to 2K per square mile or (ii) a vaccine.  i.e., until more than 90% of NYC has contracted and recovered from COVID-19.  [This conclusion says nothing about time frame; i.e., it could be years]

Does the conclusion follow from the three facts?

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