The first chart below is an estimate of weekly US employment per adult. It suggests that the bottom was the week ending May 7, and that a recovery may have begun. The estimated recovery may not look large on the scale of the current depression, but it is about 7.5 million employees above May 7 and 3 million employees above late April. Note that the entire recovery from the 2008-9 recession was "only" 7 million employees above population growth and took ten years rather than a week or two. At about the same time, states began ending their stay-at-home orders. E.g., Texas May 1 and California May 8. I expect another increase in early June as more reopening occurs. A big increase will occur when UI bonuses expire, which may be as early as August. The imputation is based on the
[email protected] (Casey B. Mulligan) considers the following as important: covid19, Labor market, unemployment insurance
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The imputation is based on the scatterplot below.