Saturday , June 6 2020
Home / Brad Delong, Berkeley / Daily Notes: 2020-03-29

Daily Notes: 2020-03-29

Summary:
There were 2027 reported deaths in the U.S. from the novel coronavirus as of late on Mar 28—if our reporting systems have not yet broken down. With a 1% death rate, and with 3 weeks between infection and death, that means that as of Mar 7 there were 202700 coronavirus cases in the United States. Up through Mar 28 deaths have been doubling every three days, suggesting that before Mar 7 true cases were also doubling every three days: If that that pace has continued since, by Mar 31 we will have had 8 further doublings: 52 million cases, 1/6 of the population. If the curve bent to doubling every four days, by Mar 31 we will have had 6 further doublings: 13 million cases, 1/25 of the population, with an additional 30 million cases expected by April 7 If the curve bent to doubling every

Topics:
Bradford DeLong considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

[email protected] (Cyril Morong) writes Today is Adam Smith’s Birthday

Equitable Growth writes Elevating economic research on racist violence and exclusion in the United States

FT Alphaville writes Let’s call Trump out, but let’s get our facts straight too

Emilie Openchowski writes Weekend reading: Black Lives Matter edition

There were 2027 reported deaths in the U.S. from the novel coronavirus as of late on Mar 28—if our reporting systems have not yet broken down.

With a 1% death rate, and with 3 weeks between infection and death, that means that as of Mar 7 there were 202700 coronavirus cases in the United States.

Up through Mar 28 deaths have been doubling every three days, suggesting that before Mar 7 true cases were also doubling every three days:

  1. If that that pace has continued since, by Mar 31 we will have had 8 further doublings: 52 million cases, 1/6 of the population.
  2. If the curve bent to doubling every four days, by Mar 31 we will have had 6 further doublings: 13 million cases, 1/25 of the population, with an additional 30 million cases expected by April 7
  3. If the curve bent to doubling every six days, by Mar 31 we will have had 4 further doublings: 3.2 million cases, 1/100 of the population, with an additional 3.8 million cases expected by April 7
  4. If the curve bent to doubling every eight days, by Mar 31 we will have had 3 further doublings: 1.6 million cases, 1/200 of the population, with an additional 1.5 million cases expected by April 7
  5. If the curve bent to doubling every twelve days, by Mar 31 we will have had 2 further doublings: 800,000 cases, 1/400 of the population, with an additional 600,000 cases expected by April 7
  6. If the curve bent to doubling every twenty-four days, by Mar 31 we will have had 1 further doubling: 400,000 cases, 1/800 of the population, with an additional 200,000 cases expected by April 7

As of the morning of Mar 29, the U.S. had 125,000 reported cases

As of the evening of Mar 28, the U.S. had tested 650,000 people, with a 19% positive rate. Applying that to our six scenarios, in each scenario those we have tested are, respectively, 1, 5, 10, 20, 40, and 80 times more likely to have the disease than the average probability of having the disease.

Question: What is wrong with this analysis?


Sat: 11:30: Bobby & Inthisar...
Sat: 13:00: Selena & Daniel...


#dailynotes #noted #weblogs #2020-03-29
Bradford DeLong
J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *