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Daily Notes: 2020-03-27

Summary:
NOTES: U.S. Coronavirus Deaths https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0PB6Y9KF-SIgrQpyCsmkjm_Ww: BEND THE CURVE, PEOPLE!!!! 1696 deaths as of 2020-03-27 1.895 is the log growth factor over the past week 500,000 is what you get if you project that out over the next three weeks, to April 17: The people who will die on or before Apr 17 will have caught the coronavirus by... now. They are baked in the cake: Unless the curve has already bent, they are toast. 22,000,000 is what you get if you project that out over the next three weeks, to May 1: The people who will die on or before May 1 will have caught the coronavirus by... Easter. That number is too large: that tells us that the epidemic is running its course between now and Easter—unless the curve is bent, or has already been bent. Our last

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NOTES: U.S. Coronavirus Deaths https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0PB6Y9KF-SIgrQpyCsmkjm_Ww:

  • BEND THE CURVE, PEOPLE!!!!
  • 1696 deaths as of 2020-03-27
  • 1.895 is the log growth factor over the past week
  • 500,000 is what you get if you project that out over the next three weeks, to April 17:
    • The people who will die on or before Apr 17 will have caught the coronavirus by... now. They are baked in the cake: Unless the curve has already bent, they are toast.
  • 22,000,000 is what you get if you project that out over the next three weeks, to May 1:
    • The people who will die on or before May 1 will have caught the coronavirus by... Easter.
    • That number is too large: that tells us that the epidemic is running its course between now and Easter—unless the curve is bent, or has already been bent.
    • Our last time to act to stop spread is... now

NOTES: State-by-State Coronavirus https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0BQW1nH3Sk2kadzMnYOIFic_w:

  • Currently 4791 cases and 106 deaths in California: that's 121 reported cases per million—ranking 31st among states in the U.S...
  • If the death rate is 1%, then that means 265 true CA cases per million on Mar 6...
  • If it has been doubling every week, that means about 2100 true cases per million now, and the same number of new cases expected next week...
  • Currently 46,000 cases and 600 deaths in New York: that's 2400 reported cases per million—ranking 1st among states in the U.S...
  • If the death rate is 1%, then that means 3100 NY cases per million on Mar 6...
  • If it has been doubling every week, that means about 25000 true cases per million now, and the same number of new cases expected next week...

Things Accomplished:

  • Coronavirus Daily Read List https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/coronavirus-daily-read-list.html: NEJM Group: Updates on the Covid-19 Pandemic.... Worldometer: Coronavirus Update.... Financial Times: Coronavirus Tracked.... CDPH: News Releases 2020.... Josh Marshall: Epidemic Science & Health Twitter List...

  • Cases and Deaths from Coronavirus Doubling Every Three Days Is Very Bad News Indeed https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/cases-and-deaths-from-coronavirus-doubling-every-three-days-is-very-bad-news-indeed.html: I confess I am positively unmanned by the every-three-days doubling of reported cases and deaths here in the United States. I had thought that we would see true cases doubling every seven days. And back when reported cases started doubling every three days, I was encouraged, because I thought it meant that we were catching up on testing, and so getting closer to detecting the bulk of the symptomatic cases. But now it looks like that was wrong.... That means that the Trump administration has only 40% as much time to get its ass in gear as I thought it did. And that means the chances it will are very very low indeed...

  • Yet Another Rant on Coronavirus & Trump https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/yet-another-rant-on-coronavirus-trump.html: Could "reopening America for business" on Easter backfire? Oh, yes it could. Oh, it definitely could backfire: BIGTIME.... From May 1 to June 15 hospitals will have been overwhelmed. The likely death rate will have been not 1% but 6%. 5 million additional Americans will have died. In return we will have produced an extra $1 trillion of stuff. That's a tradeoff of $200K per life, which is not a good tradeoff to aim at making. And, while it could be better, it could be much worse...


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Bradford DeLong
J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

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