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Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Calling Literatures From The Vasty Deep

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Must-Read: My two—three—macro papers would be: Krugman (1998) https://www.gc.cuny.edu/CUNY_GC/media/LISCenter/pkrugman/1998b_bpea_krugman_dominquez_rogoff.pdf, Blanchard-Leigh (2013) https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.103.3.117, and Mian-Sufi (2011) https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.5.2132… Paul Krugman: Calling Literatures From The Vasty Deep: “Noah [Smith’s]… Two Paper Rule… …Give me two papers in this vast literature that are “exemplars and paragons” of the literature. If you can’t, the whole literature is probably a waste of time. Which… sets some of us to work trying to think of the two papers…. My examples. [While] Noah is generally very down on macroeconomics… I believe that we’ve learned a lot… since… 2008…. Fiscal policy: before the crisis

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Must-Read: My two—three—macro papers would be: Krugman (1998) https://www.gc.cuny.edu/CUNY_GC/media/LISCenter/pkrugman/1998b_bpea_krugman_dominquez_rogoff.pdf, Blanchard-Leigh (2013) https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.103.3.117, and Mian-Sufi (2011) https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.5.2132

Paul Krugman: Calling Literatures From The Vasty Deep: “Noah [Smith’s]… Two Paper Rule…

…Give me two papers in this vast literature that are “exemplars and paragons” of the literature. If you can’t, the whole literature is probably a waste of time. Which… sets some of us to work trying to think of the two papers…. My examples. [While] Noah is generally very down on macroeconomics… I believe that we’ve learned a lot… since… 2008…. Fiscal policy: before the crisis there was strikingly little solid evidence… because history gave us so few natural experiments…. I’d point to Blanchard and Leigh https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.103.3.117, using austerity as an experiment, and Nakamura-Steinsson http://www.columbia.edu/~en2198/papers/fiscal.pdf, exploiting regional shocks from defense spending. Not saying these are the only fine papers, but they’re enough to show that there’s a real there there…. Dramatic confirmation of what some of us thought we knew about monetary policy at the zero lower bound. I can think, for example, of a 1998 paper https://www.gc.cuny.edu/CUNY_GC/media/LISCenter/pkrugman/1998b_bpea_krugman_dominquez_rogoff.pdf that has held up really well…. Trade? Autor/Dorn/Hanson https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.103.6.2121 on the China shock may not be the last word, but surely a revelatory approach…. Subramanian and Kessler https://piie.com/publications/wp/wp13-6.pdf… realizing that this globalization is different….

I’m pushing back against Noah’s nihilism (noahlism?) even while endorsing his method…

Bradford DeLong
J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

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