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Home / Brad Delong, Berkeley / Should-Read: Ann Marie Marciarille: Let’s Make a Deal and the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017: A Car or a Goat?

Should-Read: Ann Marie Marciarille: Let’s Make a Deal and the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017: A Car or a Goat?

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Should-Read: Ann Marie Marciarille: Let’s Make a Deal and the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017: A Car or A Goat?: “I am as mesmerized as anyone else by the repeated iterations of the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017… http://www.marciarille.com/2017/07/lets-make-a-deal-and-the-better-care-reconciliation-act-of-2017-a-car-or-a-goat.html …The New York Times’s] astonishingly sports page-like coverage scoring of winners and losers for each version, and tales of back room sweeteners  (“Klondike Kickback” being my personal favorite coinage so far). But none of this… distracts me from the fact that it is all about persuading elected officials and the American public that what they have in hand (the Affordable Care Act) would be better surrendered for one of these myriad other

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Should-Read: Ann Marie Marciarille: Let’s Make a Deal and the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017: A Car or A Goat?: “I am as mesmerized as anyone else by the repeated iterations of the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017… http://www.marciarille.com/2017/07/lets-make-a-deal-and-the-better-care-reconciliation-act-of-2017-a-car-or-a-goat.html

…The New York Times’s] astonishingly sports page-like coverage scoring of winners and losers for each version, and tales of back room sweeteners  (“Klondike Kickback” being my personal favorite coinage so far). But none of this… distracts me from the fact that it is all about persuading elected officials and the American public that what they have in hand (the Affordable Care Act) would be better surrendered for one of these myriad other offerings. And the offers do keep coming… with such frequency but with such slight variation from each other that I can’t help but wonder about that variation on the old Monty Hall Probability Problem  where, if the host is not required to make the offer to switch yet repeatedly does so, the player has to suspect malice and wonder if, in fact, the player has already chosen the car and that the host is merely trying to shake them loose from that choice….

The correct next move… turns on some assumptions about the host’s behavior…

Bradford DeLong
J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

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