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Articles by Real Vision

Real Vision’s Daily Briefing – Oct 13,2020 – The Bond Rally and the Dollar Retracement

6 days ago

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by managing editor, Roger Hirst, to talk stimulus, currencies, and the Treasury market. Roger provides his thoughts on the latest Fed minutes by discussing how the Fed is setting up inflation expectations through TIPS as well as holding rates low for the next few years. The difficulties, he says, will be in maintaining inflation expectations while not allowing for yields to be drive upward. This leads into a discussion about currencies where Roger elaborates how a weaker dollar will lead to a stronger euro and yen, setting the stage for an unfavorable deflationary scenario for Europe and Japan. They also talk about the dollar’s slow grind to the downside, how increasing bond volatility would creep into other assets, and how U.S. markets are pricing

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Real Vision’s Daily Briefing: Oct 8,2020 – Inflation Expectations and Its Effect on Treasuries and Currencies.

12 days ago

Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserves balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as “money”? According to Jeffrey Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, and Steven Van Metre, macro fund manager and founder of Portfolio Shield, the answer to these questions is a resounding "no." Drawing upon a data ranging from Treasury auction sales to Eurodollar futures curves, van Metre and Snider explain why low yields are, in fact, deflationary — contrary to conventional wisdom. They pull no punches as they describe the “zero lower bound trap” that the Federal Reserve now faces, drawing upon their research into Japan. Lastly, Snider and van Metre analyze the March spike in Treasury prices and explore whether the funding pressures are over or if March was just

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Real Vision’s Daily Briefing:Oct7,2020 – The Fiscal Stimulus Vanishing Before Our Very Eyes

13 days ago

Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserves balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as “money”? According to Jeffrey Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, and Steven Van Metre, macro fund manager and founder of Portfolio Shield, the answer to these questions is a resounding "no." Drawing upon a data ranging from Treasury auction sales to Eurodollar futures curves, van Metre and Snider explain why low yields are, in fact, deflationary — contrary to conventional wisdom. They pull no punches as they describe the “zero lower bound trap” that the Federal Reserve now faces, drawing upon their research into Japan. Lastly, Snider and van Metre analyze the March spike in Treasury prices and explore whether the funding pressures are over or if March was just

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Real Vision’s Daily Briefing: Oct 6,2020 – Market Rollercoaster: Headline vs. Macro Drivers

14 days ago

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down the vanishing fiscal stimulus and the K-shaped economic recovery. Ed interprets the latest economic data to give Jack his market outlook over the next six months. Ed then looks at how the impasse in the fiscal stimulus may widen the chasm between large corporations and small businesses. He and Jack then turn their gaze to the credit markets where the bifurcation between the haves and the have-nots is becoming even more apparent. In the intro, Real Vision’s Peter Cooper takes a look at how President Trump has pulled the plug on fiscal stimulus negotiations, what he’s targeting now, and how markets have been taking in the news.

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Real Vision’s Daily Briefing: Oct 5,2020 -Are We in an Economic Depression?

15 days ago

Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, joins senior editor, Ash Bennington, to interpret the latest financial newsflow. Raoul explores the possibility of a top forming in U.S. equities through the lens of his "GMI crash pattern." He and Ash then analyze President Trump’s diagnosis of COVID-19 and investigate its potential market impact. Raoul then talks about today’s interview with hedge fund legend Dmitry Balyasny as well as next week’s interview with bond kingpin Jeffrey Gundlach. Raoul and Ash briefly discuss the criminal charges brought against BitMEX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. Lastly, Raoul shares his view on the enfeebled energy sector. In the intro, Real Vision’s Jack Farley breaks down the price action following the COVID-19 outbreak in the White House.

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Real Vision Daily Briefing – Oct 2, 2020

17 days ago

Real VisionReal Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, joins senior editor, Ash Bennington, to interpret the latest financial newsflow.Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, joins senior editor, Ash Bennington, to interpret the latest financial newsflow. Raoul explores the possibility of a top forming in U.S. equities through the lens of his "GMI crash pattern." He and Ash then analyze President Trump’s diagnosis of COVID-19 and investigate its potential market impact. As uncertainty increases and volatility continues to rise, a top may be forming in U.S. equities.Copper rolling over, the dollar stabilizing, and bonds staying flat are all reinforcing the narrative that growth is slowing.Politics are irrelevant when it comes to the COVID crisis because its economic effect is real due to

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