Following Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the 2016 US presidential election, many economists predicted that he would usher in another global recession, despite having inherited an economy with sound fundamentals. Were those predictions wrong, or simply premature?
It is a truism that US midterm elections are referenda on the president, and that the incumbent’s party performs well when economic indicators are strong. Yet in the age of Donald Trump, this rule – like so many others – is being challenged. Despite second-quarter US GDP growth of 4.2% and historically low unemployment, Trump’s approval rating has yet to reach 50%.Trump and the Republicans’ struggle to harness the political dividends of a strong economy may owe something to theRead More »