Was Fogel wrong?
Hornbeck, Richard, and Martin Rotemberg. Railroads,
reallocation, and the rise of American manufacturing. No. w26594. National
Bureau of Economic Research, 2019.
is an attempt to explain the argument to a wide audience.
The NBER working paper came out last year
but the paper started getting more attention this year and was presented at the
meeting of the Economic History Association. Fogel estimated the impact of railroads
in the late nineteenth century was less than 4% of GDP (which is actually quite
large) but Hornbeck and Rotemberg used a new approach that examined the impact
of increases in market access on manufacturing productivity and estimate an
impact closer to 25% of GDP.
Was Turner right?
Bazzi, Samuel,Read More »