Monday , July 13 2020
Home / Minxin Pei

Minxin Pei



Articles by Minxin Pei

The Political Logic of China’s Strategic Mistakes

5 days ago

For the first time since the end of the Cultural Revolution, the Communist Party of China faces a genuine existential threat, mainly because its mindset has led it to commit a series of calamitous strategic errors. And its latest intervention in Hong Kong suggests that it has no intention of changing course.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Some of the Chinese government’s recent policies seem to make little practical sense, with its decision to impose a national-security law on Hong Kong being a prime example. The law’s rushed enactment by China’s rubber-stamp National People’s Congress on June 30 effectively ends the “one country, two systems” model that has prevailed since 1997, when the city was returned from British to

Read More »

The End of Hong Kong?

27 days ago

For over a year, China has progressively tightened its grip on Hong Kong. Its latest move – the introduction of a new security law – may spell the death of the “one country, two systems,” and thus democracy and the rule of law in the city, but at what cost to the Communist Party of China?

Read More »

Chinese Diplomats Behaving Badly

June 9, 2020

At a time when China’s reputation is suffering and its relationship with the United States is in freefall, the country’s diplomats should be focused on differentiating China’s foreign policy from that of US President Donald Trump. Yet they are doing just the opposite.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Chinese diplomats have long had a reputation as well-trained, colorless, and cautious professionals who pursue their missions doggedly without attracting much unfavorable attention. But a new crop of younger diplomats are ditching established diplomatic norms in favor of aggressively promoting China’s self-serving COVID-19 narrative. It is called “wolf warrior” diplomacy – and it is backfiring.

A

Read More »

How the Hong Kong Calamity Will Play Out

May 25, 2020

By announcing a new security law for Hong Kong, China has effectively already brought an end to the era of "one country, two systems." And that means the worst is yet to come, as Chinese leaders’ efforts to enforce full political control over the city meet fierce local resistance.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – China’s decision to crack down on Hong Kong with a new security law has shocked the world. But to those who read the resolution issued last November by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, it comes as no surprise. In that document’s section pertaining to Hong Kong, the CPC signaled its intention to assert full control over the former British colony. Tighter national security laws and the

Read More »

China’s Misplaced Pandemic Propaganda

March 26, 2020

As the COVID-19 pandemic escalates, China has shifted its propaganda machine into high gear, in an effort to change the narrative about the virus’s origins and the Chinese response. But when this crisis is finally over, people will remember what China’s leaders did, not what they said.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Barely a month ago, China was in the grip of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak. Thousands of new infections were confirmed every day. Hospitals were overwhelmed. People were dying by the hundreds. People couldn’t leave their homes. But the government’s draconian lockdown seems to have worked: the outbreak now seems to be under control. And, apparently, China’s leaders have ignored its most essential lessons.

Read More »

Will the Coronavirus Topple China’s One-Party Regime?

March 4, 2020

In the post-Mao era, the Chinese people and Communist Party leaders have adhered to an implicit social contract: the people tolerate the party’s political monopoly, as long as the party delivers economic progress and adequate governance. The party’s poor handling of the COVID-19 outbreak has threatened this tacit pact.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – It may seem preposterous to suggest that the outbreak of the new coronavirus, COVID-19, has imperiled the rule of the Communist Party of China (CPC), especially at a time when the government’s aggressive containment efforts seem to be working. But it would be a mistake to underestimate the political implications of China’s biggest public-health crisis in recent history.

Read More »

The Coronavirus Is a Disease of Chinese Autocracy

January 28, 2020

When China’s leaders finally declare victory against the outbreak of the new and deadly coronavirus, they will undoubtedly credit the Communist Party of China’s leadership. But the truth is just the opposite: the party is again responsible for this calamity.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – An outbreak of a new coronavirus that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan has already infected over 4,000 people – mostly in China, but also in several other countries, from Thailand to France to the United States – and killed more than 100. Given China’s history of disease outbreaks – including of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and African swine fever – and officials’ apparent awareness of the need to strengthen their capacity to address

Read More »

Trump’s Gift to China

January 8, 2020

If anyone was celebrating Donald Trump’s decision to kill Iran’s General Qassem Suleimani, it was Chinese President Xi Jinping. After all, escalating tensions with Iran will distract the US from its competition with China, just as the 9/11 attacks did a generation ago.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – US President Donald Trump’s decision to order the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, Iran’s most powerful military commander, has raised the specter, albeit still distant, of all-out war between the United States and the Islamic Republic. There is only one winner in this situation: China.
The Suleimani Assassination and US Strategic Incoherence

Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Read More »

Xi Jinping’s Annus Horribilis

December 16, 2019

Trade disputes with the US, concerns about Chinese interference in Hong Kong, and ethnic tensions in Xinjiang all preceded Xi Jinping’s rise to power in late 2012. Their escalation in the last year is a direct result of China’s shift to authoritarianism under Xi.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – China’s strongman leader can’t seem to catch a break. From the trade war with the United States to the crisis in Hong Kong to international criticism of his human-rights record, President Xi Jinping suffered major setbacks in 2019, and his prospects for 2020 appear even worse.
Cronies Everywhere

PS OnPoint

Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Read More »

China’s Risky Endgame in Hong Kong

November 13, 2019

In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that by the time the People’s Republic celebrates its centenary in 2049, it should be a “great modern socialist country” with an advanced economy. But following through with planned measures to tighten mainland China’s grip on Hong Kong would make achieving that goal all but impossible.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Although the rapid escalation of violence in Hong Kong seems terrifying enough, things may be about to get much worse. The communiqué of the recently concluded fourth plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) indicates that Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning to tighten his grip on the former British colony at any cost. He

Read More »

How China Loses Friends and Alienates People

October 17, 2019

China’s recent attempt to bully the National Basketball Association over a tweet in support of the Hong Kong protesters has backfired. Although the government has successfully intimidated many a Western company and foreign government, this time it made a huge – and potentially costly – miscalculation.

CLAREMONT – The Chinese folk saying “lift a rock only to drop it on one’s own feet,” or its English equivalent – “to shoot oneself in the foot” – perfectly describes the self-defeating inclinations of dictatorship. And nothing exemplifies such inclinations so much as China’s recent effort to bully America’s National Basketball Association (NBA).
The High Price of Trump’s Great Betrayal

Read More »

The Coming Crisis of China’s One-Party Regime

September 20, 2019

In 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping promised that the Communist Party would deliver great successes in advance of two upcoming centennials, in 2021 and 2049. But no amount of nationalist posturing can change the fact that the fall of the CPC appears closer than at any time since the end of the Mao era.

CLAREMONT – On October 1, to mark the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic, Chinese President Xi Jinping will deliver a speech that unreservedly celebrates the Communist Party of China’s record since 1949. But, despite Xi’s apparent confidence and optimism, the CPC’s rank and file are increasingly concerned about the regime’s future prospects – with good reason.
The Meritocracy Muddle

Read More »

A Tiananmen Solution in Hong Kong?

August 12, 2019

When there are no good options, leaders must choose the least bad one. China’s government may loathe the idea of making concessions to the Hong Kong protesters, but considering the catastrophic consequences of a military crackdown, that is what it must do.

WASHINGTON, DC – The crisis in Hong Kong appears to be careening toward a devastating climax. With China’s government now using rhetoric reminiscent of that which preceded the Tiananmen Square massacre in June 1989, Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters – and, indeed, its democracy – could well be in grave danger.
The Case for a Guaranteed Job

PS OnPoint

Getty Images

Read More »

The US Needs to Talk About China

July 22, 2019

In a democracy, a government cannot pursue a long-term struggle with a powerful geopolitical adversary without sustained political support from an informed public. That is why the US urgently needs to launch a credible public debate on US President Donald Trump’s confrontational China policy.

WASHINGTON, DC – Of all the changes in US foreign policy President Donald Trump’s administration has made, the most consequential is the adoption of a confrontational stance toward China. Replacing a decades-old policy of engagement, Trump’s approach has not only resulted in an economic cold war between the world’s two largest economies; it has also raised the specter of armed conflict in the South China Sea and the

Read More »

China Is Courting Disaster in Hong Kong

June 13, 2019

The likely passage of Hong Kong’s controversial extradition law will irrevocably tarnish the city’s rule of law and its attractiveness as an international commercial hub. Unless China’s leaders are prepared to accept these disastrous consequences, they should withdraw the bill before it is too late.

WASHINGTON, DC – The world has been riveted by the protests raging in Hong Kong against the city government’s proposed law to allow the extradition of criminal suspects to mainland China. About one million people – roughly one-seventh of the former British colony’s population – took to the streets on June 9 to denounce the draft law, and another large protest on June 12 resulted in violent clashes

Read More »

The Lasting Tragedy of Tiananmen Square

May 31, 2019

Despite the Communist Party of China’s best efforts to whitewash history, the Tiananmen Square massacre of June 3-4, 1989, continues to have a lasting impact on the country’s political development. Sadly, after 30 years, the country now has the regime that those responsible for the massacre always wanted.

WASHINGTON, DC – China’s progress toward an open society ended when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) slaughtered at least hundreds, if not thousands, of peaceful demonstrators in and around Beijing’s Tiananmen Square on June 3-4, 1989. The crackdown left a lasting stain on the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC), despite the regime’s unrelenting efforts to whitewash history and suppress

Read More »

Is Trump’s Trade War with China a Civilizational Conflict?

May 14, 2019

Recent remarks by a senior Trump administration official suggest that the United States’ current approach to China is dangerously misconceived. The rise of China under a one-party dictatorship should be met with a united front in defense of the liberal order, not talk of a clash of Caucasian and non-Caucasian civilizations.

WASHINGTON, DC – Late last month at a security forum in Washington, DC, Kiron Skinner, Director of Policy Planning for the US Department of State, described today’s US-China conflict as “a fight with a really different civilization and a different ideology, and the United States hasn’t had that before.” As a trial balloon, this apparent attempt to define the Trump

Read More »

The Closing of the Chinese Mind

April 16, 2019

Lou Jiwei is a hard-charging reformer with an illustrious record of accomplishments. The Chinese government’s decision to dismiss him from his post as chairman of the national social security fund underscores the dangerous ways in which President Xi Jinping has transformed decision-making in China.

WASHINGTON, DC – Lou Jiwei may not be a household name in the West, but the former Chinese finance minister is well known and highly respected among financiers and economic policymakers. Yet, earlier this month, China’s government announced Lou’s dismissal from his post as chairman of the country’s national social security fund. The move reflects a change in the Chinese leadership’s approach to governance that is likely to

Read More »

The High Costs of the New Cold War

March 14, 2019

The new cold war against China will be won not through ideology or even weaponry, but through economic pressure, and the winning strategy will not be one that weaponizes only America’s greed. In this sense, by nickel-and-diming its allies, the US is effectively disarming itself.

LONDON – It is convenient to call the escalating geopolitical contest between the United States and China a “new cold war.” But that description should not be allowed to obscure the obvious, though not yet sufficiently understood, reality that this new competition will differ radically from the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union.

Jose Luis Pelaez Inc/Getty Images

Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images

Read More »

Why a US-China Trade Deal Is Not Enough

February 18, 2019

If the US and China fail to reach a comprehensive trade agreement, bilateral trade will plummet, and the unraveling of the US-China economic relationship would accelerate. But even if an agreement is reached, that unraveling will continue, because, at its core, the trade war has always been about security.

WASHINGTON, DC – As Chinese and American trade negotiators meet in Washington to try to forge an accord on trade, observers are largely focused on the countries’ economic disagreements, such as over China’s subsidies to its state-owned enterprises. But to think that an agreement on trade will protect the world from a Sino-American cold war would be as premature as it would be naïve.

Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images

Read More »

Resilience and Rebellion in Contemporary China

February 8, 2019

Two new memoirs about life in China shed valuable light on the country’s growth from an economic backwater to a modern superpower. While the Communist Party of China remains fixated on hiding and rewriting the past, ordinary Chinese are determined to write the country’s future.

WASHINGTON, DC – Shortly after China’s strongman president, Xi Jinping, came to power in late 2012, the Communist Party of China circulated its now-infamous “Document No. 9,” banning seven topics from public discourse. In addition to the obvious – constitutional democracy, civil society, individual rights – the CPC forbade any speech or writing that might fall into the category of “historical nihilism.”The CPC’s ideological police were not referring to

Read More »

China’s Perilous Taiwan Policy

January 11, 2019

China’s tough stance toward Taiwan has so far proved counter-productive, bringing no concessions from the government in Taipei and exacerbating tensions with the US. Unless China changes course, an escalating battle of wills with the US could erupt into direct conflict.

WASHINGTON, DC – The unfolding geopolitical contest between China and the United States has been described by many as a new cold war. If it ever becomes a hot one, the flash point could be Taiwan, owing in large part to Chinese policy toward the island. 

JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images

Previous
Next

China’s government suspended diplomatic contact with Taiwan in June 2016, because the pro-independence

Read More »

Who’s Afraid of China’s Influence?

December 12, 2018

What is most notable about China’s efforts to spread its influence abroad is not their success, but the ease with which they are exposed. Portraying these efforts as a genuine threat to the world’s democracies not only betrays the West’s insecurity, but also gives China more credit than it deserves.

HONG KONG – Since the Cold War ended, the West has invested huge amounts of resources in efforts to induce political liberalization in China, including through programs to promote the rule of law, civil society, transparency, and government accountability. The results have been disappointing. Far from becoming more democratic, China has lately been backsliding toward hard-line authoritarianism. And now it is investing resources in

Read More »

The Limits of China’s Charm Offensive

November 19, 2018

Facing escalating geopolitical competition with the US, China is scrambling to win friends in East Asia. But while China’s neighbors will undoubtedly welcome any respite from Chinese belligerence, they will not be fooled by sweet talk – or even sweet trade deals.

STOCKHOLM – Over the last decade, China has taken an increasingly muscular approach to relations with East Asian countries. But in recent months, it has surprised its neighbors with a charm offensive. What changed?

Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

Previous
Next

In terms of China’s behavior in the region, quite a lot. In 2013, China unilaterally declared an Air Defense Identification Zone covering the East

Read More »

The Sino-American Cold War’s Collateral Damage

October 19, 2018

Despite the low probability of a direct military clash between the US and China, a Sino-American cold war would undoubtedly produce collateral damage so far-reaching and severe that the very future of humanity could be jeopardized. But it is not too late for the US and China to change course.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – The escalating trade feud between the United States and China is increasingly viewed as the opening campaign of a new cold war. But this clash of titans, should it continue to escalate, will cost both parties dearly, to the point that even the winner (more likely to be the US) would probably find its victory Pyrrhic.

Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Previous
Next

Yet it

Read More »

MAD About Sino-American Trade

September 20, 2018

If China responds to Donald Trump’s latest trade tariffs by withholding intermediate goods from US producers, as some Chinese are suggesting, the disruption to the US economy would be severe. But the damage to China’s economy would be even worse.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Now that US President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on yet another $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, the US-China trade war has entered a costly new phase. As China follows through on its pledge to retaliate, the casualties will include more than half the bilateral trade between the two countries, with China itself suffering the most losses.

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Previous
Next

Whereas China

Read More »

China is Losing the New Cold War

September 5, 2018

In contrast to the Soviet Union, China’s leaders recognize that strong economic performance is essential to political legitimacy. Like the Soviet Union, however, they are paying through the nose for a few friends, gaining only limited benefits while becoming increasingly entrenched in an unsustainable arms race with the US.

HONG KONG – When the Soviet Union imploded in 1991, the Communist Party of China (CPC) became obsessed with understanding why. The government think tanks entrusted with this task heaped plenty of blame on Mikhail Gorbachev, the reformist leader who was simply not ruthless enough to hold the Soviet Union together. But Chinese leaders also highlighted other important factors, not all of which China’s leaders seem to be

Read More »

Drugs, Gunboats, and China’s Score to Settle

August 24, 2018

China’s decline from a self-absorbed great empire to an abject victim of global powers was one of the swiftest and most psychologically devastating in history, and it remains a driving force behind the country’s modernization. And all of it began with the Opium War.

The First Opium War (1839-1842) marks the official beginning of China’s so-called century of humiliation, a period in which the Celestial Empire lost a series of wars to technologically superior Western powers (including Japan). By the early nineteenth century, what was once the world’s largest economy had fallen woefully behind the West in terms of economic development and technological capabilities. During the Qing Empire, while the Industrial Revolution was transforming the

Read More »

China’s Summer of Discontent

August 2, 2018

Five months ago, when the Communist Party of China freed President Xi Jinping from term limits, the conventional wisdom was that his dominance within the Chinese party-state was so strong that his authority could not possibly come under attack. How things have changed.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Politics has a nasty habit of surprising us – especially in a country like China, where there is little transparency and a lot of intrigue. Five months ago, President Xi Jinping jolted his countrymen by abolishing the presidential term limit and signaling his intention to serve for life. But the real surprise was to come later.

AFP/Getty Images

Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Read More »

The Shape of Sino-American Conflict

June 6, 2018

The fact that the current trade spat is about more than economics will make it much harder to manage. While China might be able to avoid a devastating trade war in the short term, the long-term trajectory of US-China relations is almost certain to be characterized by escalating tension, and potentially even a full-blown cold war.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – For most observers of the unfolding trade war between the United States and China, the casus belli is the convergence of China’s unfair trade practices with US President Donald Trump’s protectionist credo. But this reading misses a critical development: the demise of America’s decades-long policy of engagement with China.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

Read More »