Goldman Sachs (Walker, “Company Pricing Announcements and the Inflation Outlook”) points out that changes company statements regarding price changes is contemporaneously correlated with PCE inflation, but not predictive. This puts in a different perspective media discussion of impending inflation.
The below is Exhibit 2 from their report:
Source: Walker, “Company Pricing Announcements and the Inflation Outlook,” Goldman-Sachs, April 16, 2021.
The index is a proprietary one, based on text analysis of company earnings calls for Russell 3000 firms. They find:
…the relationship between price commentary and measured inflation appears to be mostly contemporaneous rather than leading, even though companies sometimes talk about future price changes. …after controlling for core inflation or