The survey results are out, and once again, the outlook improves.
Figure 1: GDP actual (bold black), WSJ April survey mean (blue), February (red), December (green), October (light blue), CBO estimate of potential GDP (gray), all in billions Ch.2012$, on log scale. Forecasted levels calculated by cumulating growth rates to latest GDP level reported. Source: BEA (2020Q4 3rd release), WSJ surveys (various), CBO (February 2021), and author’s calculations.
The implied output gap by 2022Q2 is 1.9%, compared to 1.3% from last month’s survey (discussed here).
Despite the improvement in the central tendency of forecasts, there remains wide disagreement.
Figure 2: GDP actual (bold black), WSJ April survey mean (blue), Cummins/Nat West Markets (red), Fienup, Hamilton/California LutheranRead More »