From CDC, Atlantic/Covid Tracking Project, and IHME:
Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by The Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic (dark red), IHME forecast (light red), all on log scale. Source: CDC accessed 8/7/2020 vintage, Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic accessed 8/7/2020, IHME forecast of 8/6/2020, and author’s calculations.
Three observations: (1) the unofficial count was rising; (2) recent weeks’ (about a month’s worth) CDC data are subject to severe undercounting, so inferring recent trends on the basis of CDC data is not advisable; (3) IHME forecasts are for about constant pace of fatalities going forward. As far as I can