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Mark Thoma

Mark Thoma

Mark Allen Thoma (born December 15, 1956) is a macroeconomist and econometrician and a Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics of the University of Oregon. Thoma is best known as a regular columnist for The Fiscal Times through his blog "Economist's View", which Paul Krugman called "the best place by far to keep up with the latest in economic discourse", and as an analyst at CBS MoneyWatch. He is also a regular contributor to EconoMonitor.

Articles by Mark Thoma

Links (1/15/19)

3 days ago

Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? – Paul Krugman
Disruption, Concentration, and the New Economy – Raghuram Rajan
The Flynn Effect (Rising IQ Scores Over Time) Reverses – Tim Taylor
Bad Precedent – Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
1789, the return of the debt – Thomas Piketty
Front-Door Criterion Follow-Up – Marc F. Bellemare
How Much Value Was Destroyed by the Lehman Bankruptcy? – Liberty Street
In Conversation with Atif Mian – Equitable Growth
Why deficits are sustainable and inflation has a life of its own – Roger Farmer
Does Ultra-Low Unemployment Spur Rapid Wage Growth? – FRBSF
What U.S. Government Shutdown Means for Economic Data – Washington Post
Border walls – VoxEU
The future of work – Economic Principals
Machine Learning & Econometrics – Dave Giles
Should we worry

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Links (1/11/19)

7 days ago

Trump’s Big Libertarian Experiment – Paul Krugman
Oceans Are Warming Faster Than Predicted – Scientific American
The effect of machine learning on credit markets – VoxEU
When is more competition bad? – MacroMania
Time for China, Germany, the Netherlands, and Korea to Step Up – Brad Setser
The deep roots of development – Part 2 – Growth Economics
Monetary Policy Outlook for 2019 – Richard Clarida
Inequality in the joint distribution of consumption and time use – VoxEU
What is the just pay? – Branko Milanovic
Modern Monetary Theory Doesn’t Make Single-payer Any Easier – Josh Barro
The research university – Understanding Society
A more thorough analysis of marijuana use and homicide – Incidental Economist
Social Security, on sure enough footing: Forget Republican fearmongering –

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Links (1/7/19)

11 days ago

Be prepared: A recession is significantly likely in the next two years – Larry Summers
What Will Cause the Next US Recession? – J. Bradford DeLong
From Yellow Vests to the Green New Deal – Joseph E. Stiglitz
(Econometrics) Papers of the Moment – No Hesitations
Using the Front-Door Criterion to Estimate Causal Effects – Marc F. Bellemare
Make Benefit-Cost Analysis Meaningful – The Regulatory Review
Can We Minimize Econogenic Outcomes? – EconoSpeak
The return on information technology – VoxEU
Global Networks and Financial Instability – Capital Ebbs and Flows
When Alan Greenspan Worried about Overly Large Budget Surpluses – Tim Taylor
“It's Crucial to Break Up Facebook” – ProMarket
Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints – Kenneth Rogoff
The Economics of Soaking the Rich – Paul

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Links (12/31/18)

18 days ago

Joan Robinson on Poets, Mathematicians, Economists, and Adam Smith – Tim Taylor
Bad Faith, Pathos and G.O.P. Economics – Paul Krugman
Trump vs. the Economy – Nouriel Roubini
Why We Have Newspapers, Call-in Shows, Reading Clubs, and Sometimes Hang around in Barbershops – Economic Principals
Economic Growth and Climate Change: Mistaking an Output Variable for an Instrument – EconoSpeak
Marx for me (and hopefully for others too) – Branko Milanovic
Don't Trust the Markets – Roger E. A. Farmer
How Inequality Undermines Economic Performance – Michael Spence
No. The Fed Was Wrong to Raise Interest Rates – Brad DeLong
The Ghost of Trump Chaos Future – Paul Krugman
Using Sentiment and Momentum to Predict Stock Returns – FRBSF
Invisible geniuses: The advancement of the knowledge

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Links (12/17/18)

December 17, 2018

Couple of links:

Demography, unemployment, and automation – VoxEU
Market Power or Just Scale Economies? – ProMarket
Neoliberalism as Structure and Ideology – EconoSpeak
How the Press Covered the Panic of 2008 – Economic Principals
How low is low for Chinese GDP growth? ~ Antonio Fatas
Micro-responses to shocks: Pricing, promotion, and entry – VoxEU
The evolving scope and content of central bank speeches – VoxEU
DeLong's Principles Of Neoliberalism – Brad DeLong
Rah Rah Economics – EconoSpeak
Language as a self-regulating system – Language Log
Credit booms and information depletion – VoxEU
Manhood, Moola, McConnell and Trumpism – Paul Krugman
The Rise of Knowledge Economics – Scientific American
How Close is the Fed to a Corridor System? – David Beckworth
In conversation

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Links (12/7/18)

December 7, 2018

The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last? – Robert Shiller
The Art of the Imaginary Deal – Paul Krugman
Measuring monetary policy shocks – Jim Hamilton
Can anything hold back China’s economy? – Larry Summers
The USMCA Is a Downgrade for North America – PIIE
Have Yield Curve Inversions Become More Likely? – FRB Richmond
Optimal timing of unemployment benefits:  – Microeconomic Insights
Explaining S=I: Inventories vs Adding up Individuals – Nick Rowe
The macroeconomic benefits of gender diversity – Lagarde and Ostry
Just Released: Interactive R-star Charts – Liberty Street Economics
Helping the left behind: its (economic) geography, stupid – mainly macro
U.S. Interest Rates  in Emerging Market Economies – Capital Ebbs and Flows
Free Software without a Free

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Links (12/4/18)

December 4, 2018

I am in Kenya (was teaching time-series econometrics in Nairobi) and got a bit behind. For pictures of Maasai Mara, Nairobi, and other stuff, see here:

Climate Denial Was the Crucible for Trumpism – Paul Krugman
Dual Regression and Prediction – No Hesitations
Inheritance taxation and wealth effects on the labour supply of heirs – VoxEU
Is corruption a social thing? – Understanding Society
The Fed's Policy Implementation Framework – PIIE
How to End Venezuela’s Nightmare – Ricardo Hausmann
Beyond GDP – Joseph E. Stiglitz
Does the Floor System Discourage Bank Lending? – MacroMania
A Review of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy – FRBSF
What game theory tells us about politics and society – MIT News
E Pluribus Unum: single vs. multiple point of entry resolution – Cecchetti

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Links (11/28/18)

November 29, 2018

Global Rebalancing – Antonio Fatas
Data Dependence and U.S. Monetary Policy – Richard Clarida
Explaining Price Markups During the Great Recession – St. Louis Fed
Some Alternative Baskets of Goods for Measuring Inflation – Tim Taylor
Why Human Chess Survives – Kenneth Rogoff
The Fed's Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability – Jerome Powell
Janet Yellen "Not Tall Enough" – EconoSpeak
The Big Con: Reassessing the ‘Great’ Recession and its ‘fix’ – VoxEU
Strategic vs parametric thinking – Stumbling and Mumbling
Flying More Efficiently – Stochastic Trend
The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift: More Recent Evidence – Liberty Street
Is the United States Relying on Foreign Investors to Fund Its Larger Budget Deficit? – Liberty Street

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Links (11/25/18)

November 26, 2018

How Democrats Can Deliver on Health Care – Paul Krugman
Corporate Giants, Hurting the Economy – The New York Times
The Monopolization of America – The New York Times
Squanto — A Sad Thanksgiving Tale – EconoSpeak
Time is God’s Way – Economic Principals
The changing nature of work – VoxEU
Silent Inflation – Robert J. Shiller

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Links (11/21/18)

November 21, 2018

The New Economy and the Trump Rump – Paul Krugman
Government Can Do More to Support Science and Innovation – Paul Romer
Trump’s Tariffs Haven’t Really Transformed Trade. Yet. – Justin Wolfers
Recalculating GDP for the Facebook age – Financial Times
Sweden’s Push to Get Rid of Cash Has Some Saying, ‘Not So Fast’ – NYTimes
An Interview with Tyler Cowen and Paul Krugman – YouTube
Catastrophe Bonds: A Primer – Tim Taylor
The disappointing impact of encouraging students to study more – VoxEU
Have Online Sales and Self-Employment Changed the Phillips Curve? – Dallas Fed

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Links (11/19/18)

November 19, 2018

Why Was Trump’s Tax Cut a Fizzle? – Paul Krugman
Review of "Capitalism in America: A History"  – Brad DeLong
The Tragedy of the Commons, Revisited – Scientific American
Americans aren’t moving to economic opportunity – Brookings
Which American industries are most in danger of monopoly? – The Economist
Solow on Friedman's 1968 Presidential Address and the Medium Run – Tim Taylor
How the FTC Protects Strong Employers and Targets Weak Workers – ProMarket
The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections – FRBSF
From Basel to the Volcker Rule: A FinReg Glossary – Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
Job-matching technologies can build a better labor market – Equitable Growth
How Adam Smith proposed to have his cake and eat it too – Branko Milanovic
The real effects of mitigating

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Links (11/15/18)

November 15, 2018

The Tax Cut and the Balance of Payments (Wonkish) – Paul Krugman
Obesity and Globalization: Evidence from Mexico – ProMarket
Why Aren’t U.S. Workers Working? – FRBSF
Digital money and payments ~ Antonio Fatas
FedViews: November 9, 2018 – FRBSF
Superstar Firms and Cities – Tim Taylor
Powell Says Fed Deserves Credit for Economic Growth – The New York Times
Ten Years after the Crisis, Is the Banking System Safer? – Liberty Street Economics
More Sandwiches, Anyone? – Econometrics Beat
When the Next Recession Hits: A User’s Guide for Future QE – PIIE

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Links (11/13/18)

November 13, 2018

Truth and Virtue in the Age of Trump – Paul Krugman
« Le Monde » and the billionaires – Thomas Piketty
Beer, & economic determinism – Stumbling and Mumbling
Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services – Lael Brainard
Differing Effects of the Business Cycle on Small and Large Banks – FRB Richmond
Work Requirements for Cash Assistance Fueled Rise in Deep Poverty – CBPP
Automation and job displacement in emerging markets – VoxEU
Paul Romer Is a Fount of Knowledge – Economic Principals
Global trends in interest rates – VoxEU
U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers – Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
What is happening with global inequality? – Branko Milanovic
The Death of Shame – EconoSpeak
Aggregating labour supply elasticities – VoxEU
The minimum wage, income tax credits, and criminal

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Links (11/9/18)

November 9, 2018

Reclaiming Community – Dani Rodrik
Populism's Common Denominator – Barry Eichengreen
The roots of sluggish productivity – EurekAlert
What the Hell Happened to Brazil? (Wonkish) – Paul Krugman
Real America Versus Senate America – Paul Krugman
Stabilization policy with ignorance – Stumbling and Mumbling
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, One Year Later – Tim Taylor
When low-income families can meet their basic needs, children are healthier – EurekAlert

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Links (11/7/18)

November 8, 2018

The Global Impact of a Chinese Recession – Kenneth Rogoff
The Lies We Were Told – mainly macro
Central bank balance sheets and monetary policy – VoxEU
China Should Import More – Brad Setser
Why Quantitative Easing Will Return – Tim Taylor
Can American Democracy Come Back? – Joseph E. Stiglitz
Give Gig Economy Workers Equity? The S.E.C. is Considering It – NYTimes
Mapping the childhood roots of social mobility – VoxEU
Last Exit Off the Road to Autocracy – Paul Krugman
Fed bashing is a fool’s game – Larry Summers
Evidence on the Minimum Wage Impact in Minnesota vs. Wisconsin – Econbrowser
Four policies to help the middle class, and how to pay for them – Brookings
Why the FTC Should Focus on Labor Monopsony – ProMarket

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Links (11/5/18)

November 5, 2018

Blame the Economists? – J. Bradford DeLong
Health spending over time – mainly macro
New evidence on convergence – Growth Economics
The Scandinavian Style of Capitalism – Tim Taylor
SAT retaking and college enrolment gaps – VoxEU
The permanent-transitory confusion – VoxEU
A Party Defined by Its Lies – Paul Krugman
What Is an "Almost Prime" Number? – Scientific American
Preserving the Wealth That Conservation Built – Austan Goolsbee
William Nordhaus Is a Master Consensus-Builder – Economic Principals
Fall 2018 Journal of Economic Perspectives Available On-line – Timothy Taylor
Are education attainment levels the root cause of all good earnings news? – Stephen Gordon
The Perversion of Fiscal Policy (Slightly Wonkish) – Paul Krugman
Mediamacro is in rude health, and is also

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Links (10/31/18)

October 31, 2018

How Economic Inequality Inflicts Real Biological Harm – Scientific American
The Great Center-Right Delusion – Paul Krugman
Kinlessness – Timothy Taylor
The evolution of antitrust enforcement in the United States – Equitable Growth
The Future of Economic Convergence – Simon Johnson
Halloween, finance and ideology – Stumbling and Mumbling
Freelancing’s Fitful Rise – Bloomberg
Supplemental issue honors the life and scholarship of Nobel Laureate Gary S. Becker – EurekAlert
Too many fishers in the sea: The economic ceiling of artisanal fisheries – EurekAlert
Uncovered interest rate parity and purchasing power parity revisited – VoxEU
The Governance of Solar Geoengineering Deployment – Robert Stavins
The 2018 Globie: “Crashed” – Capital Ebbs and Flows
Where Will the Yuan Go Next?

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Links (10/24/18)

October 24, 2018

The impact of the Clean Water Act – VoxEU
Losing it: The economics and politics of migration – VoxEU
The Neutral Rate of Interest –
What’s Wrong With the 2 Percent Inflation Target – Paul Volcker
Identifying shocks via time-varying volatility – Fed in Print
The Remarkable Fall in Global Poverty – Tim Taylor
Killer Politicians – Jeffrey D. Sachs
How Economic Inequality Harms the Environment – Scientific American
America’s Plutocrats Are Winning – Jeffrey D. Sachs
America’s Homelessness Crisis Is Deepening – Laura Tyson & Lenny Mendonca
Sexual harassment in academic contexts – Understanding Society
Does Learning More at University Actually Pay Off in the Job Market? – ProMarket
Decoupling of emissions and incomes: It’s happening – VoxEU
Housing expenditures and

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Links (10/16/18)

October 16, 2018

E.P.A. to Disband a Key Scientific Review Panel on Air Pollution – The New York Times
Donald and the Deadly Deniers – Paul Krugman
How Trump Could Fatally Weaken the Dollar – The New York Times
Is a Slowdown in Bank Lending a Bad Sign for the Economy? – The New York Times
The impact of the US-China trade war on East Asia – VoxEU
Martin Weitzman’s Contributions to Environmental Economics – Robert Stavins
The Science of Inequality – Scientific American
Brazil: the First Republic under threat – Le blog de Thomas Piketty
With Liberty, Justice, and Money for All – Regulatory Review
Liquidity Effects of Post-Crisis Regulatory Reform – Liberty Street Economics
America’s Ongoing Civil War – Jeffrey D. Sachs
Giving Up On Fighting Global Warming – EconoSpeak
FedViews – FRBSF
The Slope

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Links (10/11/18)

October 11, 2018

The Paranoid Style in G.O.P. Politics – Paul Krugman
How we create and destroy growth: The 2018 Nobel laureates – VoxEU
People vs. Money in America’s Midterm Elections – Joseph E. Stiglitz
Driving across the US gave me a different perspective on the economy – Larry Summers
Development and Security – Brad DeLong
The Dollar and its Discontents – Barry Eichengreen
Fed Is Intent on Raising Rates Even If Economy Sours – Tim Duy
What Happens When Regulatory Capital Is Marked to Market? – Liberty Street
Why Do Banks Target ROE? – Liberty Street Economics
Adam Smith's two economies – Stumbling and Mumbling
Trump Puts Supply-Side Economics to Its Final Test – Bloomberg
Inequality in and across Cities – Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
The Nobel Committee Honors the Economics of

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Links (10/8/18)

October 8, 2018

Economic Growth v2 – Paul Romer
Conditional Optimism: Technology and Climate – Paul Romer
Economics Nobel 2018: William Nordhaus and Paul Romer – Tim Taylor
William Nordhaus and why he won the Nobel Prize in economics – Marginal Revolution
Why Paul Romer won the Nobel Prize in economics – Marginal Revolution
A Nobel Prize for Breaking Through Hurdles Placed by Economists – Digitopoly
Romer, Nordhaus Are Deserving Picks for Economics Nobel – Bloomberg
How We Create and Destroy Growth: A Nobel for Romer and Nordhaus – A Fine Theorem
How elite universities shape upward mobility – VoxEU
The economic costs of a discriminatory ideology – VoxEU
Can Investments Be Too Efficient? – Diane Coyle
Will New Technologies Help or Harm Developing Countries? – Dani Rodrik
The Fed Is Not Very

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Links (10/5/18)

October 5, 2018

Biggest US Export to China? Spending by Chinese Tourists – Tim Taylor
Does Uber Kill? The Real Cost of Ride-sharing – ProMarket
Explaining weak investment growth after the Great Recession – Econbrowser
State Cuts to Higher Education Threaten Access and Equity – CBPP
A One-Question Quiz on the Poverty Trap – The New York Times
EPA Moves to Scale Back Methane Rules – Regulatory Review
Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Since 1969 – Dean Baker
Social mobility disaggregated – Understanding Society
Women and monetary policy – VoxEU

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links (10/3/18)

October 3, 2018

How important was the financial panic as a cause of the Great Recession? – Brad DeLong
When Information Flows Became Fast: The Trans-Atlantic Telegraph – Tim Taylor
Energy Intensity, Growth, and Technical Change – Stochastic Trend
Resolving 'Too Big to Fail' – Liberty Street Economics
How to Fix Brazil's Economy – Otaviano Canuto
The impacts of export taxes on agricultural trade – VoxEU
A Shout-Out for The Replication Network – Dave Giles
Central Bank Credibility Pays Off in Times of Stress – IMF Blog
The Cost of Regulatory Capital – Liberty Street Economics
Monetary Policy and Risk Management at a Time of Low Inflation and Low Unemployment – Jerome Powell

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links (10/2/18)

October 2, 2018

Is There Any Reason to Fear Low Interest Rates? – Brad DeLong
The Fed's No Longer Guided by Concept of Neutral Rates – Tim Duy
The Angry White Male Caucus – Paul Krugman
I Created "The Bernank" on YouTube. And I Was Mostly Wrong. – NYTimes
Bank performance under negative interest rates – VoxEU
Publishing and Promotion in Economics: The Tyranny of the Top Five – NBER
Differences in Citation Patterns across Journal Tiers in Economics – NBER
Pressure to publish in top journals stifles creativity in economic research – UChicago News
Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation – Marc F. Bellemare
QE: A User's Guide – PIIE
How Persistent Are the Effects of Sentiment Shocks? – FRBSF
Don't be fooled: Working Americans are worse off under Trump – Robert Shapiro

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Links (9/30/18)

September 30, 2018

My computer died. I may have lost a few links (and doing this on an iPad is less than convenient)

’Normal' Monetary Policy in Words and Deeds – John Williams
RCT's vs. RDD's – No Hesitations
The Economic Future Isn’t What It Used to Be (Wonkish) – Paul Krugman
Fiscal Recklessness, 2018 Edition – Andrew Samwick
Republicans Take the Hypocrite’s Oath – Paul Krugman
Women much less likely to ask questions in academic seminars than men – EurekAlert
There is more to the Gender Gap than the Partisan Divide – Paul Romer
Tax cuts: The gift that keeps not giving – Brookings
Three tariff lessons from US interwar history – VoxEU
Trading places – Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

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Links (9/26/18)

September 26, 2018

Portability of Occupational Licenses? – Tim Taylor
How Did China Manage its Currency Over the Summer? – Brad Setser
The Party of No Ideas – Paul Krugman
Leadership, Laughter and Tariffs – Paul Krugman
Racism Drives Higher Costs for Historically Black Colleges in Bond Markets – ProMarket
Protecting Workers Without Tariffs – Robert J. Shiller
Market Share and Market Power – IGM Forum
Independence is no disruption solution – Digitopoly
Do Spectacular Earnings Justify Spectacular US Stock Prices? – Robert J. Shiller
Underemployment in the US and Europe – VoxEU
What is the yield curve forecasting? – MacroMania
Pitfalls of a Reserves-only Narrow Bank – Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
What Have We Learned Since Bagehot? – Economic Principals
Hayekian communism – globalinequality
1½ Adam

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Links (9/20/18)

September 20, 2018

A Smorgasbord Recession? (Wonkish) – Paul Krugman
Political Pressure on Central Banks – Carola Binder
Three Sudden Stops and a Surge – Brad Setser
Japan’s Successful Economic Model – Adair Turner
The economic cost of repellent leadership – VoxEU
Foreign expansion, competition, and bank risk – VoxEU
Tax cuts have not led to bonuses, wage or compensation growth – EPI
Reflections by Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson (Video) – Brookings
Saving the Planet Doesn’t Mean Killing Economic Growth – Bloomberg
Controlling My Heating Bill Using Bayesian Model Averaging – Dave Giles
Communicating Academic Economics Ideas to the General Public – Mathew Kahn
Growth, well-being: policy should not be based on GDP alone – Micro Insights
How the sterling money markets dried up – Bank Underground

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Links (9/17/18)

September 17, 2018

The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession (Wonkish) – Paul Krugman
Comments on monetary policy at the effective lower bound – Janet Yellen
Why central banks should not be inflation nutters – VoxEU
Can Trade Agreements Be a Friend to Labor? – Dani Rodrik
What Do We Actually Know About the Economy? (Wonkish) – Paul Krugman
Central Banks Strike Back Against Political Interference – Bloomberg
Economics Gets It Wrong Because Research Is Hard to Replicate – Bloomberg
Ten Years Ago – Economic Principals
Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules – Roberto Billi
Charting the Financial Crisis – Brookings
Can codetermination help fix America’s wage problem? – Lane Kenworthy
The Most Addictive Theorem in Applied Mathematics – Scientific American
The Economist as Public Intellectual –

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Links (9/13/18)

September 13, 2018

Botching the Great Recession – Paul Krugman
Fed Interest-Rate Debate Misses the Bigger Picture – Tim Duy
The financial crisis and the foundations for macroeconomics – Larry Summers
The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis – Roubini & Rosa
An overdue look at the effects of monopoly distortion – Financial Times
What Do We Mean by Neutral in Monetary Policy? – Lael Brainard
How the brain decides what to do in the face of danger – EurekAlert
Radical Markets: a review – Stumbling and Mumbling
Rebelling Against the Clean Plate Club – Tim Taylor
Financial panic and credit disruptions in the 2007-09 crisis – Ben Bernanke
What’s Going On with the Economy? It’s the Stimulus, Stupid – John Cassidy
Interview with Philip Jefferson – The Region
SWF+UBD – interfluidity

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Links (9/11/18)

September 11, 2018

Trade, Inflation Targeting, and Central Bank Independence – PIIE
The Stable-Coin Myth – Barry Eichengreen
On the Debt Non-Spiral – Paul Krugman
Parrots Barter Tokens for Food. – The New York Times
Social-nativism, the Italian nightmare – Thomas Piketty
Vaulting Workers Into the Middle Class With High Pay – Larry Summers
The financial transmission of housing bubbles – VoxEU
Is the Great Moderation back? ~ Antonio Fatas
Opinion | Democrats Are Credible on Health Care – Paul Krugman
The Fiscal Response to the Great Recession – Jason Furman
Economists' statement in support of Atif Mian – Dani Rodrik
Whither Labor Force Participation? – Liberty Street Economics
What Should the Fed Own? – Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
Dollarize Argentina – John Cochrane
The Intertemporal Keynesian

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