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When Hamilton And Jefferson Agreed!

4 days ago

Posted on 28 November 2020
by Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist

As all of us who learn our US history from Broadway musicals know, Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton disagreed on everything. But in the aftermath the US Revolutionary War, when George Washington had become the first US president, he asked Jefferson and Hamilton to work together in creating a plan to rescue the fisheries off the New England coast, which had suffered greatly during the Revolutionary War. (Pictured below is an Atlantic cod, Wikimedia Commons.)Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Jefferson and Hamilton agreed on an incentive-based plan–although for distinctively different reasons. The result of their collaboration was February 1791

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The Financial Fire Trucks Of 2021

5 days ago

Posted on 29 November 2020
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us – sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Source: @my2cents_on via TwitterEach year at this time, I find myself recalling 2007, which was (so far) the most eventful Thanksgiving of my life. I told the story in my letter at the time, and today I am sharing it again. Interestingly, the lesson I drew from that harrowing experience once again applies. Indeed, the financial firetrucks are once again

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Really? Has Mainstream Economics Gone Through A Pluralist And Empirical Revolution?

8 days ago

Posted on 26 November 2020
by Lars P. Syll

In an issue of the journal Fronesis yours truly and a couple of other academics (e.g. Julie Nelson, Tony Lawson, and Phil Mirowski) made an effort at introducing its readers to heterodox economics and its critique of mainstream economics. Rather unsurprisingly this hasn’t pleased the Swedish economics establishment.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.On the mainstream economics blog Ekonomistas, professor Daniel Waldenström rode out to defend the mainstream with the nowadays standard defence – heterodox critics haven’t understood that mainstream economics today has gone through a pluralist and empirical revolution. Since heterodox critics haven’t noticed that, their views on the

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When Clowns Run The Circus: Economic Institutions And Intelligence Services

8 days ago

Posted on 26 November 2020
by Philip Pilkington

Article of the Week from Fixing the EconomistsAdam Curtis has a blog post which is as fantastic as usual. This one deals with intelligence services and how they are generally run by weirdos and idiots. This is something I’ve long been aware of personally – having been earlier exposed to the psychological pseudo-science lying behind the CIA’s infamous MKUltra program.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.The reason that these organisations fill up with freaks so quickly is because there is no real oversight. Curtis quotes from a history of spying by Philip Knightley The Second Oldest Profession:The whole organisation [MI5] was riddled with nepotism – dim, dreary people of

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A Vaccine And The “New New Normal”

10 days ago

Posted on 24 November 2020
by Lance Roberts, Clarity Financial

Moderna and Pfizer recently announced they had potential vaccines for COVID-19 that are more than 90% effective. With that, the market surged, and a rotation into “economically sensitive" sectors occurred. While a “vaccine" will eventually come to the market, it will only ensure a return to the “New New Normal."Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.The Old “New Normal"Following the “Financial Crisis," there was much discussion in the media about the “New Normal."The term originated cautioning economists and policy-makers’ belief industrial economies would revert to levels seen before the financial crisis. In other words, the “new normal" economy would look a lot

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COVID-19 Update For Nordics 19November 2020

11 days ago

Posted on 23 November 2020
by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

New cases are blowing up in Sweden and are now on the declining trend in the rest of the Nordics. Charts below are showing Nordic countries adjusted for population size differences to Sweden. Click for larger image. Back arrow to return to this page.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Editor’s note: Data for Iceland is not included in this report.This post appeared on True Economics 18 November 2020.This article updates: .
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The Great Reset Vs. The Great Reset

12 days ago

Posted on 22 November 2020
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

In baseball, there is a situation where a base runner is sprinting to home plate and can’t see what is happening behind him. Totally focused on scoring, he doesn’t know if the outfielder is throwing a ball that will reach home plate first. That’s where we get the phrase “out of left field." (If the ball were coming from right field, the runner could actually see it.)Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.COVID-19 was the ultimate ball out of left field. Yes, we knew viruses spread and pandemics were possible. Most of us have lived through them before. We didn’t foresee this particular one appearing when and where it did. But it quickly changed the course of

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14 Million People Can’t Make Rent

13 days ago

Posted on 21 November 2020
by UPFINA

Weekend Reading from UPFINALast week’s jobless claims report was good, but this one from the week before (November 12th) wasn’t. Last week’s reading was slightly revised higher, but it was still strong. This week’s report is in tune with the thesis that the economic restrictions and individual behavior caused by the virus are hurting the labor market. It’s a hard thesis to avoid as all the COVID-19 readings are worse than in the summer. The recovery didn’t reverse in the summer, but that’s irrelevant when hospitalizations and deaths are higher now.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Market Focuses on VaccinesThe market is looking past the winter because the vaccines make the 2nd half of

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COVID-19 Update: US Vs. EU Vs. Rest Of The World – 18 November 2020

14 days ago

Posted on 20 November 2020

Written by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

Several EU countries are near the top of the lists for COVID-19 cases and deaths. The US is also high on these lists, ranking 1st for COVID-19 cases and 7th for cases per capita. Thanks to an absolutely savage second wave of the pandemic, EU27 is now closing the gap with the U.S. in terms of total deaths, both in absolute terms and in per capita terms.

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The chart of the gap:

Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, and the trend for the U.S. continued to be worse than that for the EU27 until early October.
EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at

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Mises And Freud: Another Heroic Misreading

15 days ago

Posted on 19 November 2020
by Philip Pilkington

Article of the Week from Fixing the Economists You know that I want your loving But my logic tells me that it ain’t never gonna happen And then my defenses say I didn’t want it anyway But you know sometimes I’m a liar. . . – Violent Femmes, ‘Promise‘ (See end of article.)Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Ugh… why do I find myself criticising Mises’ garbage philosophy so much over the past few weeks? I do not know – I seem to not be engaged in “purposive action" – but whatever the reason I hope I can get this out of my system soon.Some time ago the blogger Lord Keynes pointed out that Mises included in his Human Action a discussion of psychoanalysis. At the time Lord

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Worse Than The Financial Crisis

16 days ago

Posted on 18 November 2020
by UPFINA

Article of the Week from UPFINAMost of the official economic data has been okay even though COVID-19 is ravaging the country as hospitalizations are nearing the spring peak (adjusted for some states not reporting in the spring) and deaths are nearing the summer peak. Our biggest worry is the 13.5 million people on pandemic unemployment benefits being thrown off at the end of the year without an extension. It will be far too late for them if we need to wait until after inauguration day on January 20th.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.The good news is the vaccines could end this virus next year. The CEO of BioNTech, the company that is working on the vaccine with Pfizer, stated,“If the

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Pandemics And Inequality

18 days ago

Posted on 16 November 2020
from Voxeu.org

— this post authored by Sergio Galletta and Tommaso GiommoniThe COVID-19 outbreak is expected to increase income inequality around the world as the poorer are likely to be hit harder by the pandemic’s negative economic impact. Focusing on Italy, this column argues that such distributional consequences also appeared during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Income inequality became higher in areas more afflicted by the flu pandemic, and this is mostly explained by a reduction in the share of income held by poorer people. This effect seems to persist even a century after the pandemic.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.The COVID-19 pandemic is having an unprecedented negative impact on the

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Introduction To The New Economics: A Manifesto

19 days ago

Posted on 14 November 2020
by Steve Keen, Patreon.com/Steve Keen

I’m writing a book for Polity Press entitled The New Economics: A Manifesto. It has a long way to go, but this is the reasonably complete first chapter.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Why this Manifesto?Even before the Covid-19 crisis began, the global economy was not in good shape, and neither was economic theory. The biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression began late in first decade of the 21st century. Called the "Global Financial Crisis" (GFC) in most of the world and the "Great Recession" in the USA, it saw:Unemployment explode from 4.6% of the US workforce in early 2007 to 10% in late 2009Inflation turn into deflation – inflation of 5.6%

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A Chance For Normalcy

19 days ago

Posted on 15 November 2020
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

Last week I talked about the polls misleading us. I, for one, didn’t see a high probability of a Biden presidency combined with a Republican Senate. But, pending recounts, legal actions, and some run-off elections, that’s probably what will happen. We will muddle through.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.In fact, the optimist in me says this outcome is probably better than some of us think. Divided government isn’t necessarily bad. It can actually help force the different factions to bend a little and avoid extremes. I think, or at least I hope, they will come out of their ideological holes and talk to each other.President-Elect Joe Biden has been a

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Joan Robinson And The Labor Theory Of Value

22 days ago

Posted on 11 November 2020
by Philip Pilkington

Article of the Week from Fixing the EconomistsHere’s an interesting thought from Geoff Harcourt on Joan Robinson’s relationship with the Marxist economist (and possible Soviet infiltrator) Maurice Dobb which also goes into what she thought about the labour theory of value (excuse the Americanised spelling in the title, but you must fish for hits on Google…). I think I should comment on it because I really dislike the labour theory of value for the same reasons as Robinson.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.I think Harcourt and King (the interviewer) are being immensely unfair here:She thought [Dobb] was schizophrenic. She could never understand him. Here he was, this great

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Private Sector Acceleration Despite Virus Rise

23 days ago

Posted on 11 November 2020

by UPFINA

UPFINA Article of the Week

The October jobs report was very good as we got a positive revision to September data, higher private sector job creation, and an across the board beat on everything except wage growth.

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There were 672,000 jobs added in September and 892,000 private sector jobs added. Those are positive revisions of 9,000 and 15,000. In October there were 638,000 jobs added which beat the consensus of 575,000. Private sector job creation was 906,000 which beat the consensus of 650,000 (up 14,000 from last month). The most optimistic estimate of 875,000 was beaten. Investors had been expecting a COVID-19 related slowdown, but none

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Complexity Wins Again

25 days ago

Posted on 08 November 2020
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

Here in Puerto Rico we are now an hour ahead of Eastern Time, as we don’t do daylight savings time. I stayed up much later than normal on election night to watch the returns. I knew fairly early, when Florida and North Carolina looked so close, we weren’t going to see a "blue wave." But beyond that, it was clear the presidency would not be settled that night.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.We did learn one thing with high confidence, though. The political polls were seriously, dreadfully wrong. Biden’s comfortable lead both nationally and in swing states bore very little resemblance to actual voting. This follows a similar miss in 2016.It will take

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Shutdown Or Not Leads To The Same Road

26 days ago

Posted on 07 November 2020
by UPFINA

Weekend Reading from UPFINAWe are constantly given case studies on how various regulations and restrictions impact the economy and the spread of COVID-19. At each facet of this pandemic, people claim winners and losers, but then those reverse soon after. We aren’t here to state the best policy, because there is no silver bullet at present that gets rid of the virus and has no impact on the economy. The silver bullets are better treatments and a vaccine.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.The current case study is the difference between America and Europe. Both had outbreaks in the fall. Europe’s was worse. Europe went with lockdowns and America didn’t. Cases are peaking in most European

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COVID-19 Update For Nordics 03November 2020

29 days ago

Posted on 05 November 2020
by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

The second wave of the pandemic has started first in the Nordics excluding Sweden, but the same wave is now also beginning to manifest itself in Sweden. Adding to the complexity of analysis, Swedish data is now being reported with significant volatility (multiple consecutive ‘0’ observations per week), making higher frequency comparatives basically impossible.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Nonetheless, Sweden is now catching up, once again, with the rest of the Nordics in terms of new cases. In the last 7 days, Sweden averaged 1,204 cases per day (up on 627 average daily rate of new cases in the two weeks prior). Nordics ex-Sweden averaged

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Misuse Of Data Part 2: Redux

29 days ago

Posted on 05 November 2020

by Philip Pilkington

Article of the Week from Fixing the Economists

Okay, so there’s been a bit of a misunderstanding regarding my previous post on Catalfln’s misuse of data. Some of this is likely squirming but some may be due to my own presentation. So, let’s run through this in order to be crystal clear.

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Catalfln’s original argument was that the PPI index measuring the price of capital equipment could be used to show that said prices of capital equipment are flexible enough to respond to flows of profits. This, according to Catalfln, would then show that fixed-price theory when applied to capital goods was "highly debatable" – his words.

My point was

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Housing Is Becoming Unaffordable, Again

November 4, 2020

Posted on 04 November 2020
by UPFINA

UPFINA Article of the WeekThe housing market is doing well as there is underlying demand from millennials getting older. The lower 30s age range is the sweet spot for first time home buying. Then there are cyclical support which is the decline in interest rates and the movement away from cities to the suburbs because of COVID-19. It doesn’t hurt that household wealth is at a record high partially because of the stock market.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.This summer housing activity was taken from the spring as the economy was truly shut down in March and April, which are typically high points in the year for the housing market. The delay did nothing to stop people from buying. If

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What Will Not Change

November 3, 2020

Posted on 01 November 2020

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

"If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants."

– Sir Isaac Newton, 1675

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If you feel a bit overwhelmed, you’re not alone. A lot is happening right now. The US has a big election next week. We’re all on edge about the pandemic, which appears to be getting worse again, not just in the US but in most of the world. Germany and France are closing some businesses again and restrictions are rising in the US, too. This is hitting markets as investors see recovery sliding farther into the future.

All that is important, and I’m sure next week we will talk about whatever happens in the

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The Scarring Effects Of Downturns On Young Workers

November 1, 2020

Posted on 31 October 2020
from Voxeu.org

–this post authored by Dan Andrews, Nathan Deutscher, Jonathan Hambur, and David HansellYoung people bore the brunt of the labour adjustment to the Great Recession and the COVID-19 shock appears to be having similar effects. Using Australian data over 1991-2017, this article shows that graduating in a recession imparts scarring effects on earnings for up to ten years. Recessions disrupt worker-firm match quality, but the resulting scarring effects fade over time as workers switch to more productive firms. Timely macroeconomic stimulus and labour mobility-enhancing structural reforms can ameliorate the scarring effects of recessions.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.There is a

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COVID-19 Update 27 October 2020: U.S. Vs EU27

October 30, 2020

Posted on 30 October 2020

Written by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

The data is changing very rapidly as the strong fall upsurge for the pandemic takes hold. This updates the last US-EU data review of 17 October 2020.

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Key stats:

The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate:
Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 690.0
Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 370.3
Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 86 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now slowly closing (it was 90% a week ago).

Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above

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Animism And Monetarist Thinking: The Inflation In The US In The 1970s

October 29, 2020

Posted on 29 October 2020
by Philip Pilkington

In some tribes studied by anthropologists it was found that members believed that animals and objects, rather than human beings, were responsible for pregnancies. Pregnant women were asked by other members of the tribe what object or animal they had seen immediately before discovering that they were pregnant. That object or animal – say, a large rock or a monkey – would then be considered to be the father of the unborn child.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Such is a rather humorous example of what is called “animistic" or “magical" thinking. At root, it is based on spurious correlation – the belief that just because two things coincide, in this case the discovery of

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COVID19 Update: Nordics

October 26, 2020

Posted on 26 October 2020

by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

My last update on Nordics vs Sweden comparatives was a month ago, although I did post some more recent data trends on Twitter since then. Here are the latest numbers.

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New deaths counts are relatively benign, both in Sweden and (at a higher rate) in the rest of the Nordics.

However, new daily counts in thee Nordics ex-Sweden are literally out of control as a new, and much larger wave of the pandemic sweeps EU27.

Sweden entered the second wave of the pandemic with a delay, compared to other European states, so its numbers are still lagging those in other Nordic states.

I commented on the often-heard

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The Green Shoots Of 2020

October 25, 2020

Posted on 25 October 2020
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

Appearing on 60 Minutes in 2009, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said the recession’s end was in sight because the Fed’s asset purchases were generating “green shoots". They turned out to be slow-growing shoots. The US unemployment rate kept getting worse for seven more months (peaking in October), and needed five more years to get where it was when that recession began.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Similarly, you can look around today’s economy and see green shoots here and there. As bad as things are – and make no mistake, they’re bad – we’ve regained some lost ground since the March/April depths. But the problem is in the “here and there" part. Some parts

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Worldwide COVID-19 Cases And Deaths 23 October 2020

October 24, 2020

Posted on 23 October 2020
by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

The global pandemic is accelerating, not abating. New cases numbers have set all-time records in the last two days, and daily counts ranked in top 10 in the last 10 days on eight occasions, with the balance two occasions coming in ranked 13th and 15th, respectively. Despite the rising public complacency and fatigue to the pandemic numbers, globally, we are yet to attain the first peak of the pandemic, suggesting that when this does happen, we are likely to be set for an even worse second wave of infections.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Overall, 7-days average for new infections is at a jaw-dropping 390,097, more than 3 times the historical

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Will Vote-By-Mail Affect The Election Outcome?

October 23, 2020

Posted on 23 October 2020
by Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist

For the 2020 election, the United States will rely more heavily on vote-by-mail than ever before. Is it likely to affect the outcome? Andrew Hall discusses some of the evidence in "How does vote-by-mail change American elections?" (Policy Brief, October 2020, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research).Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.There are several categories of vote-by-mail. The mild traditional approach was the absentee ballot, used by people who knew in advance that they wouldn’t be able to make it to the polls in person on Election Day for some specific reason (like being an out-of-state college student or deployed out-of-state in the

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On The Misuse Of Data And Confirmation Bias

October 22, 2020

Posted on 22 October 2020

by Philip Pilkington

Article of the Week from Fixing the Economists

When I was doing my undergraduate in journalism I became interested in economic reporting and commentary. One of the things that struck me was the inability of respected opinion-makers to handle data; a disease that Dean Baker documented on his Beat the Press blog. Much to my surprise when I began to study economics I found that the situation was not much better among academics and working economists. Often whole debates would disintegrate on a basic data-point.

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A good example of this is the case of Jonathan Finegold Catalfln, an Austrian economist and Mises.org contributor. (The

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